JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 8:20 PM EDT764
FXUS63 KJKL 040020 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
820 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A boundary wavers over the region tonight and Sunday, with small
shower chances returning to counties along the TN and VA state
lines tomorrow.
- Drier and cooler air spreads across the area on Sunday night,
then lingers through the first half of the work week.
- Expect warmer temperatures for the second half of the work week,
but with continued dry weather conditions.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
23Z sfc analysis shows a front now southeast of Kentucky with
high pressure off to the northeast. This high is working to push
drier air and clearer skies into the area on light northeast
winds. Meanwhile, dewpoints remain high in the southeast with
ample low clouds but most showers staying just across the border
with Tennessee and Virginia. Currently, temperatures vary from
the upper 50s in the northeast valleys to the mid 60s in the south
closer to that front. Meanwhile, dewpoints range from the upper
40s to lower 50s north to the lower 60s in the south. Have updated
the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids along with a tweaking of the fog expectations
overnight. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
As of 20Z, visible satellite imagery shows low clouds still
occupying skies south of I-64. Ceilings remain low, but should
gradually improve through this evening. However, a mix of low
clouds and fog is expected to redevelop overnight and linger
into Sunday morning. Temperatures currently range from the
lower 70s along and north of I-64, where clouds have cleared
out this afternoon, to the mid to upper 60s south of I-64
where clouds persist.
A frontal boundary remains stalled just southeast of the
forecast area. Moisture from this front is expected to spread
back over eastern Kentucky overnight into early Sunday. Showers
may also redevelop over southeastern Kentucky, along the shared
state borders with Tennessee and Virginia. Deep moisture
(PWATs around 1.25 to 1.50 inches) interacting with an
approaching mid-level shortwave and low-level northeasterly
flow will generate a solid wave of overrunning rainfall. These
PWATs are actually quite anomalous for this time of year,
falling within the 90th to 97th percentile. All this said,
areas north of KY-80 will see little to no rain through
Sunday.
Tonight, temperatures will cool into the low to mid 50s across
northern portions of the area, and upper 50s to low 60s
farther south. Mostly cloudy skies are expected south of I-64
for much of Sunday, with high temperatures reaching the mid to
upper 70s. However, any lingering cloud cover into the
afternoon, as was saw today, may shave a few degrees off highs. A
secondary cold front then moves through from the northwest out of
the Ohio Valley later Sunday. Sunday night, temperatures are
expected to cool into the lower 50s, with a few spots clawing down
into the upper 40s, especially in the Bluegrass. Some patchy fog
may also develop late Sunday night, followed by dry weather
through much of the upcoming week.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 443 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
Those who have been looking forward to pleasant autumn weather
across Eastern Kentucky are in luck, because the long term forecast
period is just that. When the period opens on Monday, a drier and
cooler airmass will be advecting into the region via northerly to
northwesterly flow throughout the atmospheric column. Shifting
synoptics aloft will cause the mid/upper level flow to adopt a quasi-
zonal orientation by midweek, and the corresponding surface
anticyclone is expected to propagate east through the Wabash and
Ohio River Valleys in this same time frame. While mostly clear skies
and the loss of the northerly wind component favor a warming trend,
neither of these shifts favor efficient moisture return. Rather,
they favor a prolonged period of efficient diurnal insolation and
mixing processes in Eastern Kentucky.
In sensible weather terms, this means that widespread high
temperatures in the 70s on Monday and Tuesday will creep towards the
80 degree mark as the week progresses. Southern and western locales
will be the first to return to highs in the 80s on Wednesday, with
these above-normal high temperatures creeping further east-northeast
on Thursday and again Friday. However, dewpoints will likely
struggle to rise much higher than the low to mid 50s. Efficient
diurnal mixing should yield dewpoint depressions on the magnitude of
25-35 degrees, and it is plausible that those dewpoints could under-
perform the blended NBM guidance used to populate the long term
forecast grids. Nevertheless, with fair skies in the forecast grids,
it should feel fantastic outside each afternoon. These are prime
conditions for outdoor fall activities such as hiking and leaf-
chasing, so get outside and enjoy it!
This week's synoptic weather pattern is also favorable for efficient
radiational cooling at night. Expect ridge/valley temperature splits
to emerge after sunset each night, with the shadier valleys dropping
off the fastest. Some of the most sheltered/shaded valley locales
could experience lows in the upper 30s on Monday and Tuesday nights,
but most valley locations should experience MinTs in the 40s this
week. Fog remains favored over frost as a result, with the greatest
fog coverage expected along the area's waterways. Therefore, aside
from localized visibility reductions from the AM fog, the risk for
hazardous weather in the long term forecast period is quite low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
Earlier low clouds have eased to the southeast part of the area
- still affecting the southern TAF sites. Currently, mostly clear
skies are found from JKL north and west. Elsewhere, mainly MVFR
and IFR ceilings persist. These ceilings should slowly improve
into high-end MVFR or low-end VFR by 06Z before conditions flag
again as areas of fog and additional lower clouds develop. KIOB
and KSYM will probably see enough drying to stay unaffected while
terminals farther south see periods of IFR or LIFR through 14Z,
Sunday morning. Conditions will then gradually improve toward the
end of the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable through
the period, remaining at or below 5 kts.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GINNICK/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 8:20 PM EDT---------------
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