Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1442 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE256
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1442
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1149 AM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 041547Z - 042147Z
Summary...Very efficient rain producing showers and thunderstorms
along the central Gulf coast will bring a risk of flash flooding
through this afternoon.
Discussion...Very moist air in place across the region today
interacting with a weak surface boundary will promote the
continued development of slower moving showers and thunderstorms
along the central Gulf coast through this afternoon.
As of 16Z, available radar imagery shows a shield of widespread
showers drifting east/northeast from southeast Louisiana eastward
into the western Florida Panhandle. This activity lies in the
vicinity of a surface trough which is aiding the overall forcing
and lift in the region. A mesoanalysis showed precipitable water
values well in excess of 2 inches, locally as high as 2.5 inches
(2.47" 12Z LIX sounding).
Most of the hi-res guidance including the HRRR shows a continued
drift of the activity through the afternoon hours, with a greater
concentration of more widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms across southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi and
perhaps extending eastward through southern Alabama. Given the
very moist airmass (deep warm cloud depths and tall/thin CAPE
profiles), the activity will be very efficient rain producers.
This is likely to result in pockets of localized higher rainfall
totals, potentially amounts of 2 to 4 inches through this
afternoon. The main limiting factor to more extreme totals is the
lack of deeper instability as the atmosphere has been worked over
already this morning.
The main risk of flash flooding will be urban areas, poor drainage
locations, and other low-lying sensitive locations.
Taylor
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 31118691 31058570 30718491 30498476 30128464
29728487 29678550 30068632 30238724 30178770
29808856 29408895 29018945 29359034 30259045
30798922 31058800
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1442 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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