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347 FXUS64 KLIX 040536AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1236 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026- Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will affect the area through Sunday evening. Additional rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts and some localized flooding issues are possible, mainly east of I-55 and especially in the coastal MS counties. Residents should continue to monitor the forecast for updates regarding this threat. Remember, Turn Around Don't Drown!- Tide ranges are decreasing, but coastal flooding is still a borderline threat for coastal MS. Additionally, heavy rain will increase water levels, so a Coastal Flood Advisory is in place for coastal Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson counties through 8 am this morning. It currently appears water levels will be below threshold levels Monday morning. However, additional advisories may be necessary later in the week.&&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Wednesday)Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026Shortwaves were noted off the Louisiana coast and over Oklahoma and Texas this evening. Abundant moisture continued to stream onshore with the 00z LIX and LCH soundings both reporting precipitable water values of 2.58 inches, which exceeds the daily maxima. Whilemuch of the area has seen an inch or less of rainfall, localized heavy rainfall has produced upward of 5 inches in the New Orleans area, and 1-3 inches in portions of the Mississippi coastal counties.With the impulse offshore expected to move across the area overnight and Sunday, we could still see an additional 3-5 inches of rain across portions of the area, mainly east of Interstate 55, and will leave the Flood Watch in place for now. As the frontal systemto the north continues to sag southward, we should start to see any heavy precipitation taper off Sunday evening.For Monday through Wednesday, moisture levels fall off, with precipitable water values falling to the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range. The frontal boundary should remain far enough offshore that any significant amounts of precipitation should remain either offshore, or at worst, over very lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes. A fair amount of sunshine can be expected from about Interstate 10 northward for Tuesday and Wednesday.Tide ranges are also diminishing somewhat, and forecast levels appear to be below thresholds for Sunday night's high tide cycle,so don't currently plan an additional advisory beyond the currentone. That being said, water levels are forecast to increase againat midweek and advisories may be necessary then.Clouds and precipitation will hold high temperatures in the lower 80s today, which may even be ambitious. Monday will moderate a bit, and then Tuesday-Wednesday could see highs back in the 85-90 degree range. Only a degree or two between the NBM 50th and 90th percentile highs for those 2 days, so anything much above 90 will be difficult to achieve. Overnight lows should range from mid 60s to lower 70s.&&.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Saturday)Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026Troughing will continue along the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday evening, with the associated frontal boundary well offshore over the Gulf. A stronger shortwave over west Texas Wednesday into Thursday should entrain some deeper tropical moisture from the southwest Gulf that will reach the local area by late Friday. This, unfortunately, looks to produce another wet weekend across the area next weekend. While most or all of the area should be dry Wednesday and Thursday, rain chances will increase for Friday and Saturday as precipitable water values increase again to nearly daily max values (2.3 inches). Global models will have some disagreement about the details this far out, but there's enough similarity to not back off the PoPs in the forecast. Midweek temperatures have trended upward a bit and won't rule out a 90 degree high or two on Thursday. Clouds and precipitation may trend weekend temperatures down a bit from previous runs, closer to 80 than 90. &&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026A mix of VFR and IFR ceilings at present should trend to IFR or lower by sunrise as rain spreads back into the area, with visibilities deteriorating accordingly. Not much in the way of thunder during the overnight hours, but that threat will increase again by mid-morning. Do not expect any significant improvement in ceilings during the daytime hours, with MVFR at best. SHRA/TSRA will produce occasional IFR or lower visibilities. Any significant improvement in conditions will probably not arrive until well beyond 06z Monday, and maybe not until the daytime hours Monday. &&.MARINE...Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026A tightening pressure gradient over the coastal waters will form in response to a developing weak low pressure system in the western Gulf. Winds will briefly relax to 10 knots or less later today asa front stalls along the coast. This front is expected to then slowly push through the waters on Monday and Tuesday. Winds will turn northeasterly behind the front and increase to 15 to 20 knots as drier air advects over the warm waters. Another low will form along the front by Wednesday, and this should increase winds in small craft advisory range of 20 to 25 knots through the end ofthe week. Seas will also increase to 5 to 7 feet by Wednesday overthe open waters well offshore and remain at those levels through the end of the week.&&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ039-058-064-070-071- 076>082-087-089>093-098>100.GM...None.MS...Flood Watch through this evening for MSZ070-071-077-083>088. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MSZ086>088.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...RWLONG TERM....RWAVIATION...RWMARINE...RW
