Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1437 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE631
AWUS01 KWNH 040416
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-040930-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1437
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1215 AM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Areas affected...Gulf Coast from eastern LA to western FL
Panhandle
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 040414Z - 040930Z
Summary...Efficient rainfall with hourly rainfall totals of 2 to 3
inches (locally higher) can be expected along portions of the
central Gulf Coast through 09Z. Isolated/localized flash flooding
may occur as a result.
Discussion...GOES East infrared satellite and GLM imagery at 0345Z
showed a region of convection with cooling cloud tops and
occasional lightning from near the LA/MS/AL/western FL Peninsula
coasts to 100-150 miles south of the MS/AL coast. The region of
showers and thunderstorms was located near a low level trough axis
(focused within 850-700 mb layer) that extended WSW to ENE near or
just south of the central Gulf Coast. The environment sampled by
the 00Z LIX sounding and nearby GPS sensors indicated a highly
moist environment with 2.5 to 2.6 inches along the LA coast to
about 2.3 inches in the western FL Panhandle. MLCAPE was only
about 500 J/kg from the coast of LA to the FL Panhandle (00Z LIX
sounding and 03Z SPC mesoanalysis) with lower values to the north
and 500 to 1000+ J/kg to the south over the warm Gulf waters.
South to southeasterly steering flow and similarly oriented
925-850 mb layer winds along the Gulf Coast will favor repeating
and training rounds of heavy rain overnight near the slow moving
low level trough axis. Aiding ascent is a broad area of speed
divergence aloft across the central Gulf Coast given the presence
of a 60-90 kt 200 mb jet that increased with northward extent from
the Gulf Coast States toward the OH Valley. Multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist near the Gulf
Coast in the vicinity of the slow moving low level trough axis
with high short term rates. Efficient rainfall with wet bulb zero
heights in excess of 16 kft will support hourly rainfall of 2 to
3+ inches and 15-minute rates over 1 inch at times although heavy
rain cores may be transient over the next several hours. Flash
flooding may result, especially should there be overlap of high
rain rates with urban, low-lying and other areas of poor drainage.
Otto
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 30968774 30808582 30068570 29828601 29698669
29648799 28958890 29018978 29769030 30369022
30798958 30918882
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1437 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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