JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 30, 4:53 PM EDT342
FXUS63 KJKL 302053
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
453 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures climb through Thursday, while humidity gradually
increases heading into the weekend.
- A slow moving front will likely bring showers and stray
thunderstorms to the area from Friday afternoon into the weekend
until a secondary boundary passes through ahead of the new work
week.
- Dry conditions and below normal temperatures through the first
half of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 348 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
As of 330 PM EDT, high-level clouds continue to stream across
the region under fair skies, with surface temperatures having
warmed into the low-to-mid 80s. High pressure remains
anchored in the vicinity of eastern Kentucky, bolstered by an
expansive upper-level ridge centered over the Eastern U.S.
and Ohio Valley, characterized by a 588 dam ridge at the
85th-95th percentile relative to climatology. Farther west, a
cut-off low remains centered over the Southwest while a
northern stream trough traverses the Northern Plains. Under
light winds tonight, a decent ridge/valley temperature split
is expected, with valley locations cooling into the low-to-
mid 50s while ridge tops remain in the upper 50s to low 60s.
This persistent pattern will maintain unseasonably warm
conditions through Thursday, with daytime highs reaching the
mid to upper 80s across the area under generally fair skies;
some locations may flirt with 90 degrees as the upper ridge
axis slowly begins to shift toward the Atlantic Seaboard.
Meanwhile, as the northern stream trough advances into the
Great Lakes, it will push a surface cold front through the
Midwest and into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Thursday night
will feature quiet, dry weather across nearly the entire
forecast area for the vast majority of the night as the front
slows its eastward push upon approaching Kentucky. Light
southerly flow ahead of the boundary will keep overnight
lows on Thursday night mild while maintaining a moderate ridge/
valley split, with valleys cooling into the mid-to-upper 50s while
ridge tops remain in the mid-to-upper 60s. Rain chances will
begin creeping into the western Bluegrass between 6-8 AM Friday,
with isolated to scattered coverage.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 453 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
The models are in good agreement with more of a split-flow long
wave pattern in place across the CONUS at the end of the work
week. A progressive short wave trough will start out over the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Friday within the northern stream.
Meanwhile, a positively tilted southern stream short wave trough
will be positioned from the middle Mississippi Valley down through
northern Mexico. Ridging will be centered off of the southeastern
U.S. coast, while another high is sprawled from portions of the
Four Corners region to just offshore of the Southern California
coast. Through the weekend, the southern stream positively tilted
trough will gradually shift east with time. This feature will then
eventually be absorbed into amplifying northern stream energy by
early Monday. The northern stream will then hold sway generally
east of the Rockies through the middle of next week, with ridging
remaining anchored across the West. All of this will result in
unsettled weather across eastern Kentucky into the weekend, with
cooler and drier weather to follow for the first half of next
week.
Rain chances will be on the increase from northwest to southeast
across eastern Kentucky on Friday, as well above normal PWATs
(95th percentile) surge in ahead of an approaching surface cold
front. Fortunately, two things are working against the threat of
excessive runoff across the area. The first is antecedent dry
conditions heading into this event, with most waterways running
fairly low. The other will be the instability, as both LREF and
NBM probabilities for greater amounts (>500 J/kg) of SB CAPE and
MU CAPE have generally been trending down across our area. As
such, without better thunder potential, the majority of the
higher PWAT air will likely remain untapped. This is also seen in
the raw QPF numbers, with probabilities for seeing greater than 1
inch of rainfall in 24 hours ending 8 am Saturday across the area
remaining pretty meager from the NBM (10% southeast and 30-40%
northwest).
As the cold front exits our area Friday evening, widespread
shower activity will gradually diminish from northwest to
southeast. For Saturday, the better moisture gradient has shifted
a bit further into Tennessee this go around, with a larger PoP
gradient noted in the blended guidance from northwest to southeast.
Mostly cloudy skies will still be in place, with lingering low
level northeasterly flow in the wake of the cold front. A
secondary surge of moisture will move in for Saturday night and
Sunday, with higher PoPs favored across our terrain counties.
While a stray thunderstorm can not be completely ruled out, this
is also looking less and less likely, given the weaker
instability.
Cooler progressive surface high pressure will follow Sunday night,
moving in from the Plains. This high will shift east with time,
settling across the Ohio Valley by Tuesday, before positioning
over New England by Wednesday. This will result in dry weather
across eastern Kentucky after Sunday. Cooler northeasterly flow
will remain in place through Tuesday, with below normal
temperatures expected. Highs will average in the 60s and 70s,
with overnight lows in the 40s. Some modest return flow ensues by
Wednesday, with temperatures returning closer to normal values.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
High pressure remains in the vicinity of Eastern Kentucky through
the TAF period, leading to VFR conditions at all terminals and
mostly clear skies. Winds generally remain light out of the south
to southwest; however, tomorrow morning may become breezy as
boundary layer mixing engages a 20-25 kt LLJ. TAF sites may see
gusts out of the southwest as high as 20 kt from 14-18Z Thursday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 30, 4:53 PM EDT---------------
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