JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 24, 5:43 AM EDT744
FXUS63 KJKL 240943
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
543 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lingering spotty showers exit southward by early afternoon
today, with clearing skies and cooler highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s.
- Dry, early autumn weather settles in for Friday through the
weekend, with daytime highs in the 70s and chilly nighttime lows
in the 40s, the coldest since mid-May.
- A warming trend arrives early next week, bringing high
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s and returning rain
chances by Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 419 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
Low clouds and fog remain prevalent across eastern Kentucky early
this morning, with just a few spotty light showers ongoing
near/east of US-23. Temperatures are also still on the mild side,
ranging from the lower to mid 60s. The latest surface analysis
shows an ~1036 mb surface high centered near Quebec City, QC. Low-
level easterly flow along the southern periphery of the high
continues to induce a lee-side inverted trough along the western
slopes of the southern and central Appalachians, including far
eastern Kentucky. Looking aloft, the weak upper-level low that
facilitated yesterday's rainfall and flooding across portions of
southeastern Kentucky is now centered near Huntington, WV.
Upstream, a 500 hPa ridging axis extends from the western Gulf
Coast northward into the Upper Great Lakes and then northeast into
southern Quebec.
The upper-level low will drift southeast through the day, reaching
the North Carolina coast this evening, where it will support a
strengthening coastal low. In the wake of the departing upper low,
heights will gradually rise aloft over eastern Kentucky as drier
air slowly filters in on northeasterly flow. As a result, any
spotty convection will gradually sink southward and exit into
Tennessee/Virginia by late morning or early afternoon. For
tonight and Friday, that coastal low will make slow northward
progress toward the coastal waters of New England while the
Canadian high retrogrades westward to over Ontario, causing low-
level easterly flow to cease and dissipating the lee-side trough
along the western Appalachian foothills. This will allow for a
more solid push of drier air southwestward across the entire
JKL forecast area on Friday, leading to dew points falling deep
into the 40s for many locations. Daytime temperatures should
still be mild though, though, as 850 hPa temperatures remain in
the 10-12C range -- supporting highs ranging through the 70s.
In sensible weather terms, a stretch of weather more characteristic
of early fall is on tap as we head into the last weekend of September.
Any spotty leftover showers will drift south today, with clouds
slowly giving way to increasing amounts of sunshine. It will be
cool, with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s in the
northeastern foothills to the mid 70s near Lake Cumberland. For
tonight, expect mostly clear skies and fog formation in typically
favored river valley locales, with low temperatures ranging from
the mid 40s in the coldest northeastern hollows to the mid 50s
near Lake Cumberland. Looking ahead to Friday, mostly sunny skies
return and temperatures warm back into the lower to mid 70s for
most with light northeasterly breezes.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 532 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
The long-term period opens Friday evening with a closed ~572 dam
low off the Mid-Atlantic coast, nearly vertically stacked over a
~995 mb surface low. An upstream 500 hPa ridge extends from the
western Gulf Coast northward into northern Ontario. This is
mirrored at the surface by a high pressure center extending from
southern Quebec to over the Great Lakes. This setup will be
keeping dry, cool air feeding into the Coalfields on a light
northeasterly flow.
The pattern changes little through Sunday night--dry, cool air
continues to feed into our region on a light northeasterly flow.
With 850 hPa temperatures holding not far from 10-12C and dew
points in the 40s, this will favor daily highs reaching into the
70s in most places while nighttime lows dip into the 40s each night.
Some of the coldest northern hollows (e.g., West Liberty, Sandy
Hook) could in fact dip into the lower 40s, per COOP MOS guidance.
Friday night-Sunday night will almost certainly yield the coldest
temperatures eastern Kentucky has seen since mid-May.
By Monday, the upper-level low finally begins to fill in earnest and
drift away to the northeast while the 500 hPa ridge to our west
begins to shift east and break down ahead of another 500 hPa
trough translating through the western and central CONUS.
Consequently, the aforementioned surface high pressure will shift
far enough east for winds to veer southerly and bring increasing
warmth and moisture back to eastern Kentucky for Tuesday and
Wednesday. That will mean not only the return of rain chances by
Wednesday, but also temperatures moderating back to above normal--
Wednesday highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s
after morning lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
Outside of some VFR over the Big Sandy, mainly MVFR to IFR stratus
ceilings with some patchy fog are noted across eastern Kentucky
at the 06Z TAF issuance. An inverted surface trough lingers over
far eastern Kentucky and could support a few more showers or even
a rumble of thunder through daybreak -- a TEMPO group was
included with the SJS TAF to account for this concern. Sustained
improvement in the ceilings is not expected until during the day
on Thursday when the trough finally begins to fade and drier air
filters in on a northeasterly flow. Winds will generally be around
5 kts or less from the northeast through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 24, 5:43 AM EDT---------------
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