JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 12, 3:25 AM EDT414
FXUS63 KJKL 120725
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
325 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hotter conditions make a comeback through this week and into
next week, with heat indices peaking around 100 degrees Monday
through Wednesday.
- The next significant chance of rain arrives toward the middle
of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2024
An upper trough remains situated from the Great Lakes with trough
axis extending south-southwest to the Mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio
River Valleys early this morning. A weak mid-level disturbance
continues to trigger scattered showers across the eastern Bluegrass
region this morning, but most areas in eastern Kentucky are, and
will remain, dry.
The aforementioned upper trough dampens significantly and lifts out
of the Great Lakes region, with gradual mid-level height rises
through Saturday despite weak disturbances brushing/grazing the area
from the northwest. The best chances for rain will thus be this
morning through the afternoon over the northwestern Bluegrass region
and then again Saturday afternoon as the next weak system brushes
the region and allows for an increase in instability. However,
outside of rain chances early this morning, the PoPs were left below
the 15 threshold which is needed for a mention in the official
forecast, so for now the entire short-term period will be left dry
across eastern Kentucky.
With gradual height rises and a slight decrease in moisture by late
afternoon, expect high temperatures to rise a few more degrees from
Thursday with upper 80s to lower 90s expected under partly cloudy
skies. Lows tonight will also rise a couple of degrees with lows in
the 60s compared to this morning, with lower 60s in the typically
coolest sheltered valleys. Saturday's highs in the lower 90s with
isolated pockets of mid-90s seem reasonable with a slight uptick in
instability yet still remaining fairly dry.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2024
The first several days in the extended should be hot and mostly dry,
as high pressure settles over portions of the southeastern and
southern CONUS. We might see a few showers and storms Sunday
afternoon north of Highway 80, and again Monday evening, as a couple
of weak disturbances pass by to our north. Our next good chance will
likely not arrive until late Tuesday, as a more substantial system
moves across southern Canada, and drags a cold front through the
Great Lakes and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. It appears that the
front will get hung near or over our area by Wednesday, keeping rain
chances in the forecast through near the end of the week. Weak
impulses moving along the sluggish boundary will be triggers for
showers and storms as well.
As for temperatures, it looks like we will see a return to hot and
muggy conditions in the extended. The latest run of the NBM was way
too hot for Monday and Tuesday, and initially had highs on those two
days maxing out in the mid to upper 90s, which would be incredibly
difficult to achieve in our area. Even with dewpoints expected to
rise into the upper and lower 70s, we should still see daily highs
mainly in the lower 90s, with a few locations perhaps reaching the
mid 90s. We should see a nice cool down at the end of the period, as
the cold front drifts to our south and persistent rain and clouds
are in place. Highs next Thursday should only be in the low to mid
80s. As far as weather concerns go, we will keep an eye on just hot
and humid conditions become the first few days next week. If any
concerns arise with regards to the heat, we will keep everyone
informed.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2024
The period will remain mostly VFR across eastern Kentucky. Will
maintain a continuity forecast with just MVFR viz in fog
mentioned at SME, but otherwise kept other sites VFR for now. This
fog is expected to dissipate around 12Z and VFR will return area
wide for the remainder of the period. Expect another day of
shallow cumulus development generally with cloud bases once again
in the 5 kft to 6 kft range. Winds will remain light and variable
for the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 12, 3:25 AM EDT---------------
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