JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 12:15 AM EDT337
FXUS63 KJKL 130415 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1215 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog could become locally dense into the start of the
morning.
- Temperatures will increase to well above normal, or even near
record, levels by the middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
A pesky stray thunderstorm to the northwest is not enough to
justify keeping or extending the flood watch after a mostly dry
evening. For that reason - and in concurrence with all the CAMs
guidance - the Flood Watch was dropped before midnight. Otherwise,
have updated the forecast for the latest obs and trends of the
T/Td/Sky grids along with PoPs through dawn. Still expect areas of
fog becoming locally thick with a potential for low stratus thick
substantial enough for even some spits of sprinkles or drizzle
into the morning. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, zones, and
SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 452 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
An area of light to moderate rain continues across portions of
southeastern Kentucky late this afternoon, along with generally
more discrete activity over the Bluegrass and west of Lake
Cumberland. The clouds and precipitation have held temperatures
on the cool side, ranging mainly in the 70s to lower 80s. Also, the
heaviest rainfall totals have fallen outside of the Flood Watch
area so far, with no reported impacts, but trends will need
continued monitoring through the evening. Instability remains on
the weak, skinny side, generally between 1000 and 1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE, with anomalously moist PWATs near 2.0 inches, a deep warm-
cloud layer, and weak Corfidi upstream vectors around 10 kts or
less--all still favorable for torrential rainfall and
backbuilding. The latest surface analysis shows a warm frontal
boundary draped northeast of the area from North Carolina up into
central West Virginia, across Ohio, to over southern Lake
Michigan. Meanwhile, a cold front extends from Ontario
southwestward over Chicago and St. Louis. Looking aloft, a
500 hPa shortwave trough axis extends from Cincinnati to
Nashville to Huntsville. Additional weaker shortwave energy is
located upstream along the cold front.
The primary focus through this evening will be continued rounds of
convection and the potential for training and backbuilding leading
to instances of isolated flash flooding ahead of the upper-level
shortwave trough. As mentioned prior, most of the substantial
rainfall has occurred outside of the Flood Watch, and guidance is
not hitting the Flood Watch area particularly hard this evening.
However, given the favorable environment and mediocre CAM
performance, the Watch will remain in place for now. Otherwise,
look for convection to diminish this evening as the 500 hPa trough
axis passes overhead. Lingering low-level moisture will then favor
plenty of fog and low stratus overnight. Additionally, a second
700 hPa vort lobe will pass late tonight and Sunday morning, when
model soundings still show a little instability in the lowest few
hundred hPa of the troposphere -- perhaps enough for a few light
showers in addition to drizzle. Therefore, there is still a low
chance of precipitation (10 to 30 percent) in the forecast closer
to daybreak. Otherwise, low-level moisture will gradually thin
during the day Sunday as weak 500 hPa shortwave ridging moves
overhead. The aforementioned cold front then approaches Sunday
evening from the northwest and sags southward across the CWA
Sunday night. Upper-level support appears to be fading as the
boundary approaches, but a few showers or thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out, with the best chances toward and northwest of I-64.
In sensible weather terms, look for showers and thunderstorms to
impact much of the area through this evening, though a few places
could stay dry. Where activity is most persistent, there could be
instances of flooding. Otherwise, it will be mild and muggy, with
fog, variable cloud cover, and perhaps a few light showers or
patchy drizzle late. Look for low temperatures ranging through
the mid to upper 60s. Looking ahead to Sunday, morning low clouds
and fog yield to increasing sunshine. It will be seasonably warm,
with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Clouds increase Sunday
evening and give way to a chance of showers and thunderstorms,
with the best chances in the northwest. It will again be
seasonably mild, with lows ranging through the 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
To open the extended period, prominent features at 500 mb include a
trough over the Northeast, a ridge extending from the Upper Midwest
down through the Mississippi Valley, while a second trough is modeled
over the Northern Rockies. The upper pattern remains fairly
progressive, with the ridge moving east over the Southeast US and Ohio
Valley by Tuesday, lasting through Wednesday. Thursday through
Saturday, the second trough modeled over the Northern Rockies by
Monday will slowly break the upper ridge down, ushering in cooler
weather for Friday and Saturday.
For sensible weather, the new work week starts with a surface cold
front having just passed southeast of the area. Some lingering
isolated showers remain possible early along the Virginia-Kentucky
border. Some residual river valley fog should mix out by mid-morning.
Temperatures will be cooler, ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s
from north to south. A mix of sun and clouds can be expected early,
becoming fair in the afternoon and evening. With skies clearing out
Monday night and high pressure building in, temperatures cool into the
low to mid 50s in the valleys, with upper 50s to low 60s along ridge
tops. River valley fog is expected to develop again Monday night
before mixing out Tuesday morning.
With the ridge shifting into the Southeast, high pressure builds into
the region, leading to temperatures warming into the upper 80s to low
90s through Thursday. Shortwave energy associated with the second
trough brings shower and storm chances back to the CWA Thursday
through Saturday. A cold front looks to progress into the forecast
area from the Ohio Valley before stalling out Saturday. Agreement
among model and ensemble guidance does widen heading towards the end
of the week. With troughing energy seemingly breaking down the ridge
heading into the weekend, high temperatures lax some, ranging from
the mid 80s to upper 80s north to south on Friday, and low 80s to
mid 80s north to south on Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
Widely varying conditions were in place across eastern Kentucky
at the 00z TAF issuance, ranging from IFR under low clouds to VFR
under clear skies. A few showers will remain possible this evening
with the passage of an upper level trough, but most locations
should remain rain-free. Of more note, fog and/or low stratus are
expected to develop overnight amidst weak upslope flow and the
leftover moisture from today's rainfall. This will lead to poor
flying conditions across much of the area through daybreak Sunday
with IFR or worse conditions probable. Winds will remain light and
variable overnight and then become westerly around 5 knots or
less during the day on Sunday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 12:15 AM EDT---------------
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