JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 4:14 PM EDT164
FXUS63 KJKL 102014
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
414 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unsettled weather will continue through early this weekend, as a
cold front stalls in the vicinity of eastern Kentucky.
- Locally heavy rainfall is expected at times, which could lead
to isolated instances of flash flooding.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 414 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
As of 1900Z, showers and storms continue to dissipate ahead of a
slow-moving cold front. This front is moving toward the southeast,
out of the Ohio Valley into eastern Kentucky later this evening. A
lull in shower and storm activity is expected between now and 21Z/5
PM, before a resurgence in activity is possible afterward heading
into the evening. While writing this, a second round of storms has
formed farther west in the LMK forecast area. Satellite imagery
shows cloud cover remaining across northern portions of the forecast
area. This may dampen chances of storms redeveloping across the
northern CWA this evening and perhaps overnight.
Multiple models do depict storms developing generally north of the
Mountain Parkway overnight, such as the NAM Nest, HRRR, and RAP, to
name a few. On the other hand, some models are also weaker with the
LLJ overnight, which would allow for less intense cells, despite the
heavy rainfall favorable high PWAT (1.9-2.0 inches) environment. The
WPC maintains a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4)
for all of the CWA north of a line extending from Somerset to London
to Hazard to Pikeville. Should training storms or more persistent
cells materialize, they could produce isolated instances of flash
flooding. Low clouds or fog are expected to develop after midnight
tonight, with the potential for conditions to be more widespread
compared to previous nights. The area is used to typical radiation
fog formation under calm winds and clear skies; however, this setup
will be more of the frontal or precipitation fog variety, where low
clouds or fog develop ahead of or behind a front as warm rain falls
through a cooler layer near the ground.
On Friday, on and off showers and thunderstorms continue as the
frontal boundary stalls over the forecast area. It will be
interesting to see how much heating the area gets during the
afternoon, as some model soundings suggest a juiced up environment
with higher SB CAPE (2500-3500 J/kg) and high PWATs (near 2 inches)
again. However, weak vertical wind shear and the overall progressive
movement of storms should limit the potential for precip-loaded
storms. That said, some stronger cells could still produce heavy
rainfall, which could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.
The WPC has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall
across much of the area. Convection is expected to generally
diminish into Friday night with the loss of heating. Depending on
clearing trends and how widespread the rainfall coverage is Friday
afternoon, additional fog development with be a threat.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
Model suites are in reasonable agreement for much of the long term
period. The beginning of the period will feature a weaker upper level
shortwave that will progress across the Ohio Valley. This weaker
wave will keep shower and thunderstorm chances going in the first
part of the weekend. Given the weak shear and increased PWAT values
in the 1.75 to nearly 2 inch range, we could see a renewed threat of
heavy rain given the increasing moisture and slow storm motions.
Given this, WPC does keep us in a isolated risk of flash flooding on
Saturday. Then by Sunday the previous wave dampens as it progresses
out of the area. The lower Ohio Valley will then see heights begin
to rise in the wake. This will lead to isolated convection Sunday,
mainly confined to the higher terrain given the lack of synoptic
scale forcing.
As we move into the beginning of the work week and into mid-week, we
will see upper-level ridging become further established across the
Southeast US. This ridging will be quite strong for this time of
year, running above the 90th percentile. This will usher in mostly
dry weather Monday into Tuesday, but with that will come warmer
temperatures. The warmest day right now is expected to be Tuesday,
with highs topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Then by
Wednesday into Thursday this ridging will start to breakdown and a
cold front will progress across the Ohio Valley. There has been some
timing differences with this boundary within the various model
suites that will need to be resolved, but overall expect increasing
chances of showers and Thunderstorms by late next week. Than Some of
the guidance shows this boundary could usher in some much dryer and
cooler weather by late in the week into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
Rain continues to fall across the forecast area as a weak,
slow-moving cold front progresses out of the Ohio Valley
into eastern Kentucky this afternoon and evening. Ceilings
range from IFR at IOB and SJS, MVFR at SYM, and VFR elsewhere.
A lull in activity will occur between 18-20Z with a resurgence in
showers and perhaps thunderstorms during the late afternoon and
early evening. This may result in a breif improvement in ceilings
and flight categories until 20Z. Low clouds or fog is expected to
develop after 05Z with more widespread lower ceilings and IFR
conditions expected before slowly mixing out around 14Z Friday
morning. Light and variable winds will remain through the TAF
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 4:14 PM EDT---------------
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