IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 3:55 AM EDT723
FXUS63 KIWX 090755
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
355 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warm and more humid airmass will be in place into early
Thursday. Cloud cover and precipitation may cause large
variations in temperatures Wednesday.
- There is a 30% to 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday through early Thursday morning. There is a marginal
risk for isolated severe storms between 3-9 pm ET this eve,
mainly along and south of US 24. Heavy rain, lightning, and
isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary threats in the
strongest storms
- There is a moderate swim risk for Northern Berrien County, MI
beaches along Lake MI today, and for all of Berrien County, MI
and La Porte County, IN Thursday. Breaking waves and currents
are expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026
Low confidence forecast remains through Thursday as models
continue to differ on finer details for temps and precip
chances, especially Wednesday night. Main cold front (much
cooler and less humid air) is located from Minnesota to central
NE and is not expected to arrive till Thursday. Much of our
weather will hinge on pre-frontal troughs, leftover outflow
boundaries and subtle waves resulting in a lot of challenges on
coverage, timing and intensity.
Area of showers and storms has persisted from central IA into
much of WI with only a slow eastward trend. CAMs vary on what
will be left of this area as it enters towards 12Z Wed.
Regardless of what shape it starts, generally expected some
widely sct to sct showers and maybe a few storms to persist in a
somewhat unstable atmosphere. The marginal severe threat keys
in on the afternoon and evening hours when pockets of clearing
could allow for some increased instability to produce some gusty
storms. Overall shear is lacking and lapse rates are rather
unimpressive so any gusts appear to be isolated at most. Even
larger challenges exist where the best instability axis and
lingering boundaries setup Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Overall trend has been moreso into central IN resulting in a
continued southward trend to higher pops. Wasn't ready to
completely eliminate pops but did blend with previous forecast
to nudge down.
Eventually the main front will arrive Thursday into Thursday
night and usher in an end to any precip and much more
comfortable conditions. The battle will then continue between
the sprawling upper ridge across the SE states and another
deeper trough that will attempt to move in next week. For the
time being, no major swings in temperatures or high precip
chances.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026
Predominantly VFR conditions expected at the terminals, with
brief drops to MVFR possible within any heavier showers or
thunderstorms late this morning (KSBN) into the late afternoon
(KFWA). For now, left thunder mention out of the TAF for both
sites given low confidence. Still, we could see a brief period
of MVFR ceilings/Vis in any showers as a weak pre frontal trough
moves through. Winds could briefly tick up to around 13kts with
a shift to the west as the trough passes, but otherwise, expect
south-southwest flow through much of the period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...MCD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 3:55 AM EDT---------------
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