MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 3, 2:28 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...202
FXUS64 KMOB 031928
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
228 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances increase through the
upcoming weekend. A few storms could become strong with locally
strong wind gusts and isolated flooding from intense rainfall
rates the primary concerns. A morning waterspout risk will also
continue each day across marine areas.
- Highest heat index values of 103 to 107 are expected mainly
Sunday and Monday, and a few areas may see values of 108 to 110.
Heat related products may be needed for portions of the area
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
The upper ridge over the area will weaken and become more elongated
north of the area through the end of the week. Meanwhile, a weak
easterly wave/weak sfc low will continue to move westward across
the northern Gulf. The deep easterly flow between these systems
will bring increasing moisture into the area with precipitable
water values climbing to 2.4 inches by Friday afternoon. The wave
over the northern Gulf will continue to bring scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms to the marine and coastal areas through
Friday. The combination of the weaker ridge and increased
moisture will bring higher rain chances to the area through
Saturday with scattered to numerous showers and storms each day.
Coverage will be highest offshore at night and inland during the
afternoon and evening hours.
Rain chances continue through early next week as an eastern
states trough digs southward with a weak backdoor front moving
into the area Sunday and stalling through Monday. The front then
dissipates by Tuesday. This will maintain at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening across land
areas and during the morning over the marine area.
Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s Friday and Saturday.
Highs warm into the low to mid 90s by early next week with heat
index values of 105 to 110 for the beginning of next week. /13
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon mainly along the afternoon seabreeze. Winds
will be generally easterly today and turn southeasterly to southerly
by mid to late afternoon with periodic gusts up to 15 knots. Winds
become light and variable overnight and are easterly at 5-10 knots
by morning. There is low confidence in MVFR ceilings for interior
areas of south central Alabama tomorrow morning. SS/97
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
A generally light east to southeast flow pattern will become westerly
this weekend. A light southerly flow returns early next week. Rain
chances will also increase through the weekend with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours. A few
waterspouts will be possible each morning. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 74 90 73 90 / 30 60 20 90
Pensacola 77 89 77 89 / 30 60 40 60
Destin 77 88 78 88 / 30 60 50 60
Evergreen 73 94 72 92 / 0 50 20 70
Waynesboro 73 95 73 93 / 10 40 20 60
Camden 74 94 73 93 / 10 30 20 60
Crestview 73 91 72 91 / 20 60 20 80
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 3, 2:28 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...---------------
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