MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 2, 11:45 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION...103
FXUS64 KMOB 021645
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1145 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances increase especially on
Friday, with scattered to numerous showers and storms continuing
into early next week. A few storms could become strong with
locally strong wind gusts and isolated flooding from intense
rainfall rates the primary concerns. A mainly morning waterspout
risk will also continue each day across marine areas.
- Highest heat index values of 103 to 107 are expected mainly
Sunday and Monday, and a few areas may see values of 108 to 110.
Heat related products may be needed for portions of the area
this weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
An upper ridge encompassing much of the eastern CONUS gradually
retreats to mainly over the central states through this weekend as
an upper trof well off to the north expands down along the East
Coast and adjacent Atlantic waters. A modest upper trof over the
eastern Gulf meanwhile slowly progresses into the western Gulf (and
potentially merges with the remnants of Edouard) though also
leaves an upper level weakness lingering back across the extreme
northeastern Gulf area and the northern Florida peninsula. Have
gone with slight chance to chance pops on Thursday mainly south of
Highway 84, then likely to categorical pops follow for Friday as
the modest upper trof progresses across the Gulf along with
potential for a modest surface reflection to aid with convective
development. The upper trof building along the East Coastal area
looks to lead to a weak surface trof moving into the forecast area
on Saturday, and have gone with chance to categorical pops, with
the highest pops mainly near the coast. The weak surface trof or
possibly weak frontal boundary looks to meander over the area on
Sunday and Monday before dissipating. Have gone with chance to
likely pops for Sunday which continue through Tuesday as while the
upper ridge builds back across the eastern states, an upper level
weakness and/or series of shortwaves remain over/near the area.
Storms that develop each day will be capable of locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds. Waterspout development remains possible
mainly during the morning hours each day over the marine area.
Highs on Thursday will be in the lower to mid 90s through Monday,
then look to be mainly in the lower 90s for Tuesday. Heat index
values of 100-105 are expected Thursday with values of 95-103 for
Friday. Heat index values trend to 100-107 for Sunday and Monday
then range from 98-104 on Tuesday. A low risk of rip currents is
anticipated through Sunday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms are expected to develop by the
afternoon hours, mainly across coastal counties north of I-10.
Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of
the heavier activity. Light and variable winds this morning will
become a light easterly to southeasterly flow throughout the day.
/96
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow pattern is expected
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, with
offshore winds expected at night and onshore winds during the
day. Rain chances will also increase over the coming days. Expect
higher winds and waves in and around thunderstorms. A few
waterspouts cannot be ruled out during the morning hours. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 74 93 74 90 / 0 40 40 90
Pensacola 77 91 77 88 / 10 30 60 80
Destin 78 90 77 88 / 10 30 60 70
Evergreen 73 96 73 93 / 0 10 10 80
Waynesboro 74 97 74 95 / 10 20 20 70
Camden 75 96 75 93 / 0 0 10 70
Crestview 73 93 73 91 / 0 30 50 90
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 2, 11:45 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION...---------------
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