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574 FXUS64 KMOB 291210AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL710 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026...New UPDATE, AVIATION....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 652 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026- Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend, especially near the coast. Hazards will include intense rain rates leading to localized flooding and brief gusty winds. For marine areas, waterspouts and locally strong to severe wind gusts will be possible this weekend.- A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents will be in place for local area beaches this weekend.- Heat and humidity will continue through next week. Peak heat indices will range from around 95-100 this weekend, increasing to around 103-110 by the middle of next week.&&.UPDATE...Issued at 652 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026Only change made to the forecast this morning was bumping up our rip current risk to Moderate for today based on the latest RCMOS probabilistic data. The Moderate Risk will continue throughSunday, before dropping back down to a Low Risk for next week. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. /96&&.DISCUSSION...Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026Starting out with late tonight, well, focus is pretty obviouslooking at the KMOB radar loop at a distinct surface low spinningacross offshore marine areas. NHC highlights this area with a 0%chance of tropical development over the next 2 days, 10% over thenext 7 days. Looking at proximity model soundings overnight tonight for KMOB highlights many key features harming any concerning development with this low, namely, very dry mid-level air. RAP H5 RH shows this strong dry air intrusion well on the eastern periphery of the 594dm ridge parked across the western US,pulling south into the northern Gulf. Additionally, increasing 850-200mb shear will continue to take it's toll on any vertical stacking aloft likely keeping this as a weak surface low. Having said that, we'll see this low provide a few hazards to monitor this morning throughout the day. Starting with the marine areas, ample marine instability and surface vorticity supplied by the lowitself will be enough to provide enhanced shower/storm coverage. Weak 0-1km bulk shear, enhanced low-level RH, low LCL's, suitable0-3km lapse rates and focused vorticity along any outflow boundary interactions will support another notable waterspout riskthis morning. Enhanced sfc vorticity from the low could also provide a few stronger waterspouts, similar to what we saw Friday morning. Otherwise, we'll continue to see squalls/bands of showers/storms sweeping across the coast and marine areas throughout the morning and through the day. Meanwhile for land areas, as we remain parked underneath general weakness aloft meaning no real synoptic-scale suppression at play, combined with diurnal heating/destabilization, meaning we'll see a few shower/storms pop through the afternoon/evening. However, best coverage and lifting mechanism will come from boundaries sweeping from east to west providing best lift to perhaps form some brief squalls of showers and storms, moreso confined closer to the coast.Going into Saturday night/Sunday morning - will need to keep an eye on coastal areas, as this low drifts west and will enhancedifferential friction convergence, or where winds are more southeasterly (stronger/frictionless) over water to more easterly (weaker/greater friction) over land. This could provide a targeted zoneof training showers/storms overnight leading to areas of flash flooding. While confidence is rather low at this time (mainly onplacement), and highly depends on many smaller-scale/mesoscale ingredients to align just right, will keep a close eye on it. Wouldn't be surprised we are greeted with a long period of training thunderstorms near or across coastal areas overnight Sat night into Sunday - something to monitor. Going into next week, the ridge out west drifts east with time,parking over the mid MS valley region helping to enhance easterlyflow aloft. Our location south of the ridge, away from greatermid-level suppression will promote daily scattered shower/stormchances along developing seabreeze boundaries. Will keep an eye onany easterly impulses moving across the Bahamas into the Gulf, assome long-range models try to re-ignite what was once Dolly as itgets into a slightly more favorable Gulf environment. Somethingwe'll continue to monitor.Additionally, temperatures do warm up going into next week withhighs back in the mid 90's. Max heat indices are looking like they will climb back in the 103-110 degree range. However, confidence on the higher end is lower, as forecast long-range NBMdewpoints are typically overinflated by not capturing a more realistic daily PBL mixing regime. Regardless, could reach at least at or near Heat Advisory criteria a few days. Will keep an eye on it. KLG&&.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS)Issued at 652 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026VFR conditions are currently in place for most areas at issuance time. Some patchy fog has developed over interior portions of south central Alabama this morning, bringing temporary reductionsin visibility to IFR of lower. Fog will dissipate over the nexthour or two. Another round of scattered showers and storms are expected to develop today, mainly over coastal counties during theafternoon. Expect brief reductions in visibilites and ceilings insome of the heavier activity. A light northeasterly flow this morning turns more easterly to southeasterly by the afternoon,with winds increasing to around 10-15 knots along the coast. /96&&.MARINE...Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026Main focus across marine areas will be a weak surface low generally stationed well offshore in the 20-60nm zones, providing enhanced shower and storm coverage this morning through tonight through the day on Saturday. Main risks will be locally gusty winds in any squalls, likely reaching 34kts at times and waterspouts. Activity will persist through the day and into the day on Sunday, with moderate (10-15kt) easterly flow outside of any thunderstorm activity. This weak low likely drifts west with time, establishing a greater southeasterly/onshore flow regime remaining light to moderate at 10-15kts. Waves/seas respond slightly in the 2-3ft range but lack of distinct long-duration fetch will limit any enhanced wave activity, but will be elevated/enhanced in any locally strong or severe storms. KLG&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 91 73 88 73 / 40 20 70 20 Pensacola 87 75 87 76 / 40 60 70 40 Destin 86 76 88 76 / 50 50 60 30 Evergreen 91 69 91 70 / 30 10 40 10 Waynesboro 95 71 92 70 / 10 0 30 10 Camden 91 71 90 70 / 40 10 30 10 Crestview 89 70 90 70 / 40 20 60 10 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$
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Topic: [Alert]MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 29, 7:10 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... (Read 16 times)
