JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 10:43 PM EDT754
FXUS63 KJKL 280243
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1043 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry conditions will prevail for the next several days as
temperatures climb back to above normal levels.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
Fog has already been observed on satellite this evening, so have
adjusted the forecast over the next few hours to account for the
earlier development than previously anticipated. Chances for
thunder have also been removed for the overnight hours based on
the overall environment and convective trends. Lastly we have
enhanced the ridge/valley temperature splits for tonight, again
based on latest obs and COOP MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 152 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
Afternoon update...
A cold front is now entering the local area from the northwest,
with temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s. The vertical
growth of the cumulus has been relatively subdued, but a few
downpours are gradually popping up over the higher elevations in
the southeast. Closer to the front, cumulus growth is getting
taller in central Kentucky, and these will slowly move eastward
into the local area later this afternoon. Latest meso-analysis
suggests plenty of instability (~2500 J/kg) to support
thunderstorms, and bulk-shear of 20-25 knots could still favor a
few strong to severe thunderstorms.
The relatively straight hodographs from the RAP for the area also
indicate a threat for hail - possibly as large as quarters -
exists. SPC is highlighting this concern (along with potential
damaging wind gusts from any of the more organized storms) with a
Marginal Risk outlook for severe weather over eastern Kentucky,
likewise WPC is painting a Marginal potential for excessive rain
here should training occurs. The threat for scattered convection
then lingers tonight as the front continues to settle southeast
while areas of fog and mild temperatures can also be expected.
For Friday, the cold front will have cleared the bulk of the JKL
CWA, but a stray storm or two will remain possible mainly just
along the Virginia border throughout the day.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
No deviations were made from the NBM for the long-term period as
increasing temperatures become the primary focus during the
upcoming dry stretch.
Previous long term discussion...
Under the influence of that surface high pressure system, expect
mostly clear conditions to prevail on Saturday and Sunday. Sensible
weather conditions this weekend will be diurnally modulated, with
cumulus clouds developing in the afternoon hours and continued
valley fog formation at night. Temperatures will gradually warm
throughout the weekend though, as winds will veer back towards a
more southerly orientation by Sunday. Saturday's highs in the mid to
upper 80s accordingly trend up a few degrees on Sunday before
approaching the 90s early next week.
Confidence remains high that a warmer and drier pattern will remain
in place across the region early next week. Forecast guidance
collectively resolves mid/upper level ridging across the Ohio River
Valley on Monday and Tuesday. Modeled 850mb temps near/above 20
degrees Celsius in place favors high temperatures in the lower 90s
at the surface, but the blended model guidance used to populate the
long term forecast grids is likely a little bit too warm/moist.
Diurnally mixed dewpoints will likely under-perform NBM guidance and
remain in the low to mid 60s. This should prevent heat indices from
climbing into the triple digits. While it will feel seasonably hot
outside on these two days, heat headlines should not be needed.
That upper level ridge looks to broaden out by midweek, with a
series of disturbances expected to propagate around its flattened
northern periphery. The PoPs related to these disturbances have
actually trended downward relative to previous forecast packages,
with only slight chances for isolated convection included in
Tuesday's forecast grids. Slightly better rain chances arrive ahead
of a stronger disturbance and cold front on Wednesday, although that
system's specific forecast details are masked by the increase in
model spread at that temporal range. Despite that uncertainty, the
midweek increase in PoPs should work to provide some relief from the
early week heat. In short, temperatures should trend back towards
climatological norms as we transition from August into September.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
Convection has dwindled this evening with loss of daytime
heating. For the overnight, this will set the stage for partly
cloudy to clear skies. Areas of IFR or worse fog formation are
likely in valleys overnight and could extend to nearby ridgetops
toward daybreak at terminals southeast of I-64. Winds will be
light - generally 5 kts or less - from the north.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DISINGER/GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GREIF/ILN
LONG TERM...GREIF/MARCUS/ILN
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 10:43 PM EDT---------------
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