CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 29, 12:30 PM EDT ...18z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...069
FXUS61 KCLE 291630
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1230 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026
...18z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from previous forecast cycle.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warming temperatures this weekend into next week could bring
heat indices greater than 95F to portions of the area, with
heat headlines possible.
2) Active weather pattern focused along the periphery of the
upper ridge could bring some strong storms and heavy rainfall to
the region next week, although confidence remains low on
specific impacts to the local area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Models continue to show mid/upper level ridging building into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by early next week. High
temperatures reaching the upper 80s to low 90s is possible
Monday through Wednesday, with heat indices in the mid 90s
possible. NBM probabilities for heat indices greater than 95F
peak on Wednesday, with elevated probs Tuesday and Thursday as
well. Heat headlines are not out of the question at this point,
especially in the western/southwestern portions of the area, but
probs of heat indices greater than 100F remain low at this
time. Heat impacts could be elevated with even 95F heat indices
given the time of year. Realizing these temperatures will be
contingent on shower/thunderstorm activity and resultant cloud
cover, however at this time convection is expected to be
primarily focused north of the area Tuesday and Wednesday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Despite model solution convergence on building ridge into the
Great Lakes region next week, confidence remains low on
potential for organized convection that could periodically
impact the area. A warm front will lift north into the area
Sunday, with organized convection possible upstream across the
central Great Lakes sliding southeast along this front. Models
are a bit further north with this activity than 24 hours ago,
which would keep most of this activity north of the forecast
area. The overall pattern looks to become more northwest flow
through midweek vs. the more zonal mid/upper level pattern
reflected by last night's model runs. Despite this, the best
mid/upper flow should remain north of the area during this time,
although organized convective complexes may favor a track
towards the area if sufficient destabilization manifests. The
best precip chances will be Thursday as a cold front pushes
south into the area as a potent mid/upper trough/low digs
southeast towards the lower Great Lakes/New England.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR expected through the TAF period. Scattered to broken high
level clouds are expected during the next 24 hours. Winds will
be light around 5-10 knots out of the south.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible Sunday night into Monday with showers
and thunderstorms and again on Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Marine weather conditions will be quiet through the weekend.
High pressure is over the eastern Great Lakes today and will
drift eastward on Sunday. A warm front will lift northward
across Lake Erie by Sunday night and bring scattered showers
and storms. Winds will generally be from the south to southwest
5 to 15 knots today through middle of next week and waves of 1
to 2 feet. Marine headlines are not expected on the lake for the
next several days.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 29, 12:30 PM EDT ...18z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...---------------
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