CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 7:43 PM EDT942
FXUS61 KCLE 262343
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
743 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence is growing that any convection that develops will reach
the I-75 between 7 and 8 PM EDT with the primary concern being gusty
wind and large hail. The line is expected to weaken as it moves
toward the I-71 corridor.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A line of convection will develop ahead of a cold front this
evening. Some strong to severe storms are possible primarily across
the I-75 corridor.
2) Above average temperatures return next week with highs once again
expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
As high pressure continues to drift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast
today, a cold front will approach the area as a low pressure system
begins to push east across the northern Great Lakes. Ahead of this
cold front, a line of convection is expected to develop in the warm
sector of the low over Illinois/Indiana, moving into the CWA between
7 and 8 PM EDT. Current dewpoints over Indiana in the upper 60s to
low 70s mixed with the ongoing diurnally heating and theta-e
advection ahead of the boundary will aid in storm development.
Additionally, shear values of 20-30 knots should be able to aid in
storm maintenance as they push east. The primary concern with this
evening's convection is gusty winds and large hail, although there
remains a non-zero tornado chance. The tricky part about the
forecast over the Cleveland CWA is how far east these storms will
progress and remain strong to severe. Given current model guidance
placing storms in near the I-75 corridor between 7-8PM, general
thinking is that corridor will see the greatest potential for severe
weather before the threat rapidly decreases further east with the
timing of convection becoming less diurnally favorable and
instability decreasing. SPC has highlight the I-75 corridor in a
Day 1 Slight Risk (2 of 5) for the storm potential and has also
highlighted portions of the region upstream in a recent MCD
highlighting the ongoing destabilization being observed. With any
storms that develop, there is also a chance for locally heavy
rainfall and due to this WPC has issued a Day 1 Marginal ERO (1 of
4) for the northwest portion of the area.
As the front progresses east tonight, scattered showers are possible
along and east of I-71 but the severe threat will be minimal. This
boundary should reach into far northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania by Thursday morning when additional thunderstorms may
occur but should remain sub-severe given the weaker environment
earlier in the day.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure returns to the area late Friday into Saturday and is
expected to persist into early next week. This should allow for a
prolonged period of dry weather over the area in addition to the
gradual warming of temperatures. Highs on Saturday will remain mild
in the upper 70s to low 80s before climbing into the upper 80s to
low 90s for Monday and Tuesday. With dewpoints lingering in the 60s,
it will be humid but overall heat indices shouldn't exceed the mid-
90s. Overnight lows Saturday night will be in the 50s before they
climb into the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving
into NW Ohio. This line will weaken with eastward extent over
the next few hours, but continued some TEMPO groups for brief
IFR in heavy downpours and gusty winds at KTOL and KFDY and a
PROB30 at KMFD and KCLE late this evening since the activity
may fall apart by the time it reaches the I-71 corridor.
Maintained VCSH at KCAK, KYNG, and KERI late tonight for any
leftover light showers, but those sites will stay VFR.
Otherwise, high pressure builds in Thursday with VFR conditions
through the day. S to SW winds of 5-10 knots this evening and
early tonight will become W late tonight and Thursday morning
behind a cold front, then NW at 5-10 knots Thursday afternoon as
the high builds into the region.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in low ceilings and a few showers
moving off of Lake Erie Thursday night into early Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Southwest winds will increase to 10-20 knots tonight ahead of an
approaching cold front. In addition, thunderstorms may approach
the western basin of Lake Erie this evening and may be strong to
severe between 6-10 PM. Thunderstorms should weaken in intensity
as they cross Lake Erie overnight but could still lead to
erratic wind and wave conditions. Winds shift to northerly
behind the front on Thursday night at 10-15 knots but are
expected to decrease quickly on Friday as high pressure builds
overhead. At this time we are not expected to reach Advisory
criteria but choppy conditions and a moderate risk of rip
currents could be possible. The trough passage across the lake
could be sufficient for waterspouts to develop. Generally good
marine conditions are expected for the weekend.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...10
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 7:43 PM EDT---------------
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