PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 12:12 PM EDT019
FXUS61 KPBZ 271612
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1212 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Hot and humid conditions return early next week. The threat for
heavy rain and severe storms could return to portions of the
region on Tuesday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms chances are slightly elevated
(20-40%) this afternoon and evening with a passing cold front;
a few storms may produce strong wind gusts.
2) A shift in the weather pattern is expected early next week,
hot and humid weather is expected. Severe weather chances return
mid-week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A passing cold front across central Ohio this afternoon and
evening will support isolated showers and thunderstorms across
the region. With dry air noted aloft on satellite, some
updrafts may struggle to reach 20-24kft layer, where the theta-e
minimums could promote the development of cooler, stronger
downdrafts. However, any storm able to reach these heights could
briefly produce isolated damaging wind gusts. The greatest
potential for this threat is expected between 3pm and 8pm east
of Pittsburgh. The threat for heavy rainfall remains very low.
Storm chances will decrease between 9pm and 11pm tonight, though
lingering low- level moisture may support areas of fog
overnight into early Friday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Quiet and drier weather is expected Friday through Sunday under
high pressure.
Long-range guidance remains consistent in indicating a
significant pattern shift Sunday into Monday, as a trough
develops along the West Coast and promotes strengthening ridge
across the Great Lakes. This evolution will favor a return to
hot and humid conditions, with temperatures expected to climb
into the upper-80s and near 90 degrees beginning Monday and
continuing through Wednesday. However, the probability of any
heat products is considered low.
The eventual breakdown of the Great Lakes ridge will be a key
factor in determining the potential for severe weather across
the region next week. Machine-learning guidance suggests
probabilities may begin to increasing as early as Tuesday
afternoon, currently ranging from 5-15%, with a more notable
increase expected Wednesday to around 15-30%.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front crosses the area this afternoon and evening.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop as the front approaches, along with a scattered to
broken cumulus cloud deck. MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg is
expected this afternoon, with 0-6km shear around 20kt. A lack of
deep layer moisture, and weakening lapse rates aloft with
warming in the mid levels, will likely limit thunderstorm
coverage. Maintained a prob30 mention for the most likely time
to see thunderstorms this afternoon. The dry air aloft could
result in gusty downdrafts if storms are able to become
organized. Any thunderstorms should quickly diminish this
evening with waning instability.
Partial clearing is expected after FROPA this evening, though
that may be short-lived. Ensemble guidance continues to hit
probabilities for widespread fog pretty hard overnight due to
lingering low-level moisture and calming surface winds beneath a
nocturnal inversion. For now, only mentioned visibilities below
a mile at FKL/DUJ where confidence in dense fog is higher.
Elsewhere, introduced IFR visibilities after 06z-08z timeframe,
but if models continue to trend lower through the day, those may
need to be reduced to a mile or lower at more terminals.
Outlook...
Outside of early morning fog/stratus, VFR is expected through
the weekend as surface high pressure moves east across the
region. Low chances for showers and thunderstorms return Monday
with an approaching shortwave trough.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hefferan
AVIATION...Cermak/WM
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 12:12 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
