JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 11:05 PM EDT696
FXUS63 KJKL 100305 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1105 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The remnants of tropical system Beryl will track to our
northwest through Wednesday, bringing a few showers and
thunderstorms, mainly early overnight.
- A cold front will pass through late tonight and early Wednesday,
followed by somewhat cooler and less humid weather for a couple
of days.
- Hotter conditions will make a comeback as we move toward the
weekend and into next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2024
Did a full update to the forecast particularly to adjust PoPs
based on the current radar and the latest consensus from the CAMs.
Still think their is a shot at a broken line of storms pushing
into the western parts of the area for a couple of hours after
midnight before rapidly diminishing. Did also include the latest
obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update. These
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the HWO, zones, and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 706 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2024
Due to little if any thunderstorm activity across the area, was
able to cancel Tornado Watch 516. A few showers and storms will
remain possible this evening and tonight, as the remnants of Beryl
move by. An updated set of zones has been sent without the tornado
watch. Also updated the hazardous weather outlook to remove
mention of the tornado watch and severe weather potential for
tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 516 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2024
The primary forecast concern in the short term is the passage of the
remnants of Beryl and a cold front this afternoon through Wednesday.
The consensus amongst several high resolution short term forecast
models is for isolated to at best scattered showers and storms to be
moving through eastern Kentucky through Wednesday. Over the past few
hours we have seen only isolated coverage, with one or two
borderline strong storms in the mix. Everything else has looked
quite benign. With Beryl continuing to move past to our west, kept
20 to 40 percent chance of rain in the forecast this afternoon
through this evening, before things taper off quickly overnight.
Isolated showers and storms will be possible again on Wednesday, as
moisture wrapping around the backside of Beryl filters into the area
again, as the TC remnants move off to our east. The NAMNEST, RAP,
NAM12, HRRR, and SREF models were all in good agreement on this
scenario. We will see cloud cover varying from partly to mostly
cloudy for most of the area, with perhaps some areas seeing cloudy
conditions in our western counties.
Once the last few showers and storms move out of the area late
Wednesday, we should see dry weather Wednesday night and Thursday,
as high pressure builds in over the region. Temperatures will be
quite warm tonight, as tropical moisture remains in place, with
minimum readings in the lower 70s on tap. Wednesday should be much
nicer than today, as cooler air moves in behind a departing cold
front. Highs on Wednesday may only reach the upper 70s to lower 80s
around the area. Tomorrow nights lows will be much nicer too, with
readings falling into the low to mid 60s around the area. Winds
outside of any thunderstorms today through tomorrow should be
relatively light. A tornado watch is in effect for Wayne, Pulaski,
Rockcastle, and McCreary counties through midnight tonight. That
being said, an isolated storm or two could become strong to severe
through this evening, with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes
being the primary threats.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 516 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2024
A rather amorphous surface pattern is expected over the area at
the start of the period. Without an inflow of cooler, drier air
any longer, our air mass will begin to slowly modify toward warmer
and more humid conditions. Aloft, a remnant positively tilted
trough will be be laid out from the mid Mississippi Valley
northeastward over the Great Lakes. Its main effects will be to
our north and west, where the relatively cooler air aloft will
result in enough instability for a few showers/thunderstorms. The
upper level trough is expected to weaken and retreat
northeastward with time, without a significant threat of precip
making it southeastward into our area. Rising geopotential
heights and continued air mass modification will result in a
return of hot temperatures by the time we move into the weekend.
Models show a minor ripple moving southeast over the area in our
weak flow aloft early next week. As dew points creep higher, the
combination could result in a few showers/thunderstorms, but
little organization is seen at this time and the POP is low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2024
MVFR flight conditions are expected for a period of time from late
tonight through much of the day Wednesday, impacting our western
most terminals (KSME, KLOZ, KSYM) the most. KJKL will see a
shorter window of MVFR from around dawn until early afternoon.
KSJS will likely be spared of any impacts and remain VFR through
the period. The remnants of Beryl will lift northward through the
Midwest overnight, dragging a surface cold front through eastern
Kentucky by early Wednesday morning. Some isolated shower and
possibly thunderstorm activity can not be totally ruled out along
and ahead of this surface front. But activity is expected to
remain isolated as the bulk of moisture and energy shifts
northward just northwest of our forecast area. Thus our western
most terminals will have the best chance of experiencing the MVFR
CIGS late tonight into Wednesday. Winds will be light, generally
from the south at 5-10 kts or less through the overnight. Winds
will then veer out of the southwest and eventually from the west
post FROPA through the day Wednesday, increasingly to around 10
kts with higher gusts to around 20 kts at times.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...RAY
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 11:05 PM EDT---------------
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