JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 10:55 PM EDT746
FXUS63 KJKL 240255
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1055 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Noticeably less humid air will continue to prevail early this
week, with below normal morning lows.
- Temperatures and humidity will increase Wednesday and Thursday
ahead of the next cold front, leading to a potential for
thunderstorms.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
Only minor tweaks were made again for sky cover overnight and
near term temperatures based on obs.
UPDATE Issued at 754 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
Have made minor adjustments in the sky forecast for a patch of
cirrus streaming through this evening, and for temps for an
initial quick drop in eastern valley readings early this evening.
The update has little impact on the night as a whole.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 419 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
Largely stacked low pressure just north of the Great Lakes late
today will weaken and lift northeast through Monday night.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure currently over the mid
Mississippi Valley will drift to the Ohio Valley. As this happens,
our current inflow of cooler and drier low level air around the
high will ease and our upper level flow upstream will flatten.
Even though cool/dry advection will taper off, air mass
modification will hold off during the short term, which will
afford us below normal lows both nights. The flattening upper
level flow may allow some high clouds to spill through upstream
ridging Monday night, but any clouds in our skies shouldn't have
much impact on our temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
The long term period begins Tuesday with a subtropical ridge and
closed 500 mb high ranging from 594-597 dm centered over the
Four Corners region. Elsewhere, an upper-level trough is
modeled across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and New England.
Across eastern Kentucky, Tuesday will be fair and quiet with
dew points in the 50s, and temperatures in the mid 80s feeling
a bit less humid compared to previous days. Overnight, light
winds and clear skies may aid in patchy valley fog developing
in typical favored river valley locations. With valleys possibly
decoupling at night, temperatures in the valleys may cool into
the mid to upper 50s, while ridgetops cool into the upper 50s
to low 60s, Tuesday night.
An upper low modeled over southern Manitoba will progress
southeast overnight, ending up in the Upper Great Lakes by
Wednesday morning. A surface low will also form in the Great
Lakes vicinity. Some high and mid-level clouds may work into the
area through Wednesday in advance of the approaching system. By
Wednesday evening, as a surface cold front extends from the
Great Lakes southwestward through the Ohio Valley and Ozarks,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
Wednesday night into Thursday, peaking Thursday ahead of the
frontal passage.
By Friday, the cold front is expected to have passed east of the
Commonwealth, with the trough axis shifting east of the forecast
area Friday into Saturday, leaving broad troughing across the
eastern US. Lingering moisture along the departing trough may
support isolated shower and storm chances Friday afternoon along
the VA/KY border. Model and ensemble agreement is poor by next
weekend. However, deterministic guidance diverges, with one
scenario depicting a shortwave progressing through the Central
Plains into portions of the Mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys
by Saturday evening into Sunday, which would lead to another round
of showers and storms across the area on Sunday. Conversely, an
alternate scenario tracks the shortwave farther north into the
Ohio Valley. NBM has maintained low-end isolated PoPs for Sunday
(15-20%) to reflect this low-confidence scenario. Temperatures
should remain slightly above normal for this time of year, in the
mid to upper 80s. The CPC 6-10 day outlook supports this thinking.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
Valley fog will develop and spread overnight and early Monday. It
will bring localized IFR or worse conditions, probably affecting
KLOZ and KSME TAF sites around dawn. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 23, 10:55 PM EDT---------------
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