Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1121 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE958
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1121
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
126 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 241726Z - 242326Z
Summary...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon across the central Gulf Coast will pose a flash flood
risk due to intense rain rates. Localized 2 to 4 inch totals in a
short duration are possible.
Discussion...The early morning complex of thunderstorms that
developed over Arkansas earlier has moved south/southeast today
and as of early this afternoon is now approaching southeast
Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Interacting with a surface
front draped across the area and heading into an increasingly warm
and unstable environment, this activity should begin to uptick and
intensify with peak heating over the next few hours. The
environment along and ahead of the front has ample instability,
with the latest mesoanalysis showing upwards of 2500-3500 J/kg
MUCAPE in place. It's also very moist, with PWs close to 2 inches.
The expectation is that this activity should increase in coverage
and intensity as it approaches the outlook area. While activity
should steadily move, some isolated cells developing ahead of the
main complex would be slower moving and capable of producing rain
rates 2-3"/hr. Isolated totals of 2-4" are possible, and most of
this could fall in a short period.
Given the short duration of the intense rain rates, isolated to
widely scattered instances of flash flooding is possible over the
next several hours.
Taylor
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 31889055 31708879 31838683 30338671 30138862
30178921 29688962 29468991 29569040 30049116
30469152 30939167 31589161
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1121 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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