Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #2045 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY [watch prob: 20%] [Most Prob: Tornado: UP TO 90 MPH, Hail: UP TO 1.25 IN, Gust: UP TO 60 MPH]291
ACUS11 KWNS 192152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192152
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-192315-
Mesoscale Discussion 2045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Areas affected...portions of northern and central Illinois...central
and northern Indiana...western Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 192152Z - 192315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may develop along a west-to-east
oriented boundary through the remainder of the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have been increasing in
intensity along a diffuse west-to-east oriented boundary extending
from central and northern Illinois into western Ohio. Along this
boundary, over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is in place, along with substantial
0-3 km CAPE (150-175 J/kg). Furthermore, an 80 kt 300 mb jet streak
is overspreading the OH Valley, contributing to 50+ kts of effective
bulk shear (mainly speed shear in the mid to upper levels per RAP
forecast soundings). Given these conditions, the current thinking is
that a few of the stronger storms along this baroclinic boundary may
become transient supercellular, capable of producing a couple
instances of severe wind/hail or even a brief tornado.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40218970 40349089 40539121 40689113 40989078 41398787
40708286 40268248 39988279 40058660 40218970
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Source:
Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #2045 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY [watch prob: 20%] [Most Prob: Tornado: UP TO 90 MPH, Hail: UP TO 1.25 IN, Gust: UP TO 60 MPH]---------------
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