PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 16, 12:19 PM CDT335
FXUS63 KPAH 161719
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An Extreme Heat Warning continues one final day today with Heat
Indices peaking in the triple digits up to near 115 degrees.
- Storm chances, including strong storm chances, are best with
frontal passages Sunday night into Monday and Wednesday night
into Thursday. Both frontal passages bring cooler temperatures
and lower humidity after they clear out.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Saturday was another day of solid HI's topping out in the
105-110 degree range, adding to our prolonged duration extreme
heat. There were isolated higher totals up to 113 degrees, very
similar to Friday. This was on target and will be so yet again
today with very similar conditions to the past 2 days. Heat
headlines will thus remain in effect thru what will hopefully be
its final day today.
What changes after that is a noisier pattern manifest from
falling heights as the ridge shows some breaks and ultimately, a
couple frontal approaches and passages. The first such will be
tonight into Monday, and there is a widespread swath of
Marginal/Slight Risk severe with its presence, extending its entire
latitudinal bounds from MO-VA. Temperatures and dew points fall off
after passage, but may not quite or fully enough to totally preclude
another heat headline in our south for Monday. The dew point drop
off stalls a little down there in its decreasing wax, as upper 70s
still hover on our southern borders in the late PM, before dropping
off in the evening. Fortunately, high temps do cool back toward
climo near 90F. As a result, at least at this writing, we're not
prepared to extend, but it will be something to focus upon in the
next 24 hours as peak HI's along our southern border flirt with
Advisory criteria.
Another system takes shape by mid week, and it is messier in the
models with its resolution, but for all practical purposes, it
makes incoming approach Wednesday with passage Wednesday night
into Thursday. Pops will spike during this time frame and a
sharper punch of cooler/drier air is anticipated when its
passage is completed. While no severe storms are highlighted
now, we suspect this may change as the pattern metamorphosis
occurs and the mid week nears. On the plus side is the fruit
that'll bear, as we're looking at dew points returning to the
60s by week's end, with Thursday-Friday highs solidly in the
mid-upper 80s; a spectacular end to the week weather-wise,
particularly in comparison to the prior week of extreme heat.
We'll need to enjoy it while we can as both the 6-10 and 8-14
day outlooks return an Above normal temperature signal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Convection is the primary flight hazard through the next 12
hours. There is a complex east of Quincy, IL that could become a
factor at MVN and vicinity by 21z if it continues tracking that
direction. There are also some towering cumulus towers over
south central Missouri that seem to be highlighting an area
where the convective temperature is being reached. Highlighted
with prob30s the timing where the highly conditional convection
is most likely. Wind will be a concern with any thunderstorms
today.
Winds will be fairly light and a front moves in from the
northwest around daybreak shifting the direction to the
north/northwest at 6-10kts persisting through the rest of the
TAF period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening
for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 16, 12:19 PM CDT---------------
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