WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Aug 15, 7:19 AM CDT299
AGUS74 KWCO 151223
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #186 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
719 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash and small stream flooding
WHERE: Southeast Iowa through western Indiana
WHEN: Through the early afternoon
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF: 1 - 3.5", locally higher (HRRR, 12 hr)
QPE: 2 - 3", locally higher (MRMS, 12 hr)
Rates: 1 - 2"/hr, locally higher (HRRR)
Soil Moisture: Normal to near saturated (NASA SPoRT, 0 - 10 cm RSM)
Streamflows: Ongoing flooding or much above normal (USGS)
DISCUSSION...
Another system of heavy rainfall will move through the Midwest
through the early afternoon, bringing an increased risk for flash and
small stream flooding. As the area has seen several days of
precipitation, soils are nearing saturation and are therefore more
susceptible to producing surface runoff. Local streams are also
currently elevated, meaning that this additional heavy rainfall and
runoff will be more likely to result in rapid onset flooding.
The short range National Water Model (NWM) has been fairly consistent
with its placement of signals, which has helped raise confidence in
flooding impacts. In particular, the HRRR has been placing the worst
signals across west-central Illinois, with widespread annual
exceedance probabilities (AEPs) between 2 - 10% and strong rapid
onset flooding signals (greater than 75%) over much of the area of
concern. As this area has seen widespread heavy rainfall and numerous
instances of flooding over the past several days, it also increases
confidence in the potential for continued flood impacts throughout
the day, some of which may be significant.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at:
weather.gov/owp/operations
//Ducre
ATTN...WFO...IWX...DMX...EAX...DVN...ILX...LOT...LSX...IND
ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...WPC
Source:
WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Aug 15, 7:19 AM CDT---------------
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