Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1060 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE649
AWUS01 KWNH 151835
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-160033-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1060
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Areas affected...eastern Kentucky into southwestern Virginia,
eastern Tennessee, and western North Carolina
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 151833Z - 160033Z
Summary...Spots of flash flooding are possible with scattered
thunderstorms across the region through 00Z/8p eastern.
Discussion...Strong insolation has fostered sufficient instability
for scattered thunderstorm development mainly focused in the
eastern third of Kentucky. Storms are in a very strongly unstable
environment (2500 J/kg MLCAPE), with 2+ inch PW and weak/modest
steering flow (less than 10 knots) fostering slow thunderstorm
movement. The recent development of storms has mitigated rain
rates so far (peaking at around 0.5 inch/hr), though models/CAMs
and observations all suggest that as convection expands in
coverage over the next few hours, spots of mergers/upscale growth
along with 1 inch/hr rain rates will gradually become more likely
-- even if on an isolated basis. These rain rates will approach
local FFG (around 1-1.5 inch/hr areawide -- slightly higher east
of I-81 in southwestern Virginia and I-77 in North Carolina).
Given the low FFG and sensitive local terrain, at least isolated
flash flood potential will exist - perhaps through 00Z/8p eastern.
Cook
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...RAH...RLX...
RNK...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 38738387 38708243 38098033 37058008 36218044
35458176 34978440 35948463 37208433
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1060 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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