JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 2:05 AM EDT283
FXUS63 KJKL 090605 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
205 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will be in place today with afternoon
heat indices approaching 100 degrees in a few locations.
- The remnants of Beryl will track to our northwest today into
Wednesday, bringing in a few storms this afternoon and evening
that could be strong with damaging wind gusts the main threat,
though a tornado cannot be ruled out.
- More seasonable temperatures follow for Thursday, before daily
highs return back to the lower 90s by the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 145 AM EDT TUE JUL 9 2024
No real changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids for this update.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.
UPDATE Issued at 1036 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2024
Removed any mention of thunderstorm chances in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook, with otherwise just an update of the grids
consisting of initializing the forecast with the latest hourly
observations.
UPDATE Issued at 712 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2024
Satellite imagery shows some towering cumulus clouds extending
from Jackson County northeast to Menifee and Morgan Counties.
Additionally, outflow boundaries are approaching the area from
earlier storms to the south and cumulus buildups to the north.
Have thus expanded 15 PoPs northwest toward these areas for the
next couple of hours as an isolated shower or thunderstorm is
possible, especially in Jackson County where radar depicts a
shower occurring now. Otherwise, the forecast remains as is with
no changes. Evening convection should weaken with the loss of
daytime heating.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2024
The afternoon surface analysis shows a high pressure off to our
east and a warm front set up across the Tennessee Valley. This
warm front is expected to push northward through the period. This
afternoon we has showers and thunderstorms that have developed
near the Tennessee and Virginia borders as expected this
afternoon. These will be very slow moving with heavy rainfall
possible in some locations. We will see this activity dissipate
through the evening as we loose diurnal heating.
Tonight, we will see a mix of sun and clouds as we continue to
see increasing moisture from post tropical cyclone Beryl advect
northward. The deterministic and ensemble guidance is in good
agreement with this system pushing northward into the ARKLATEX
tonight. Given this we could see another period of fog mainly in
the river valleys, but possibly some elsewhere given the
increasing moisture return. The lows should be fairly uniform
tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70.
Tuesday, we will continue to see post tropical cyclone Beryl
track northward toward the Ohio Valley. The deterministic and
ensemble systems have this now low pressure system tracking into
western Kentucky by Tuesday afternoon , with a warm front
extending northeastward near the Ohio River. Given the cyclonic
motion on the northeast side of this post tropical cyclone there
would be ample spin for some lower top supercells or perhaps some
multi-cell clusters. This could lead to a few stronger storms
dependent on how much instability that is built across the area,
with guidance being in the 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. That is a bit
on the marginal side, but the ample spin could make it a little
more interesting. This as we see fairly good curvature in the
lowest 3 km of the hodographs. SPC collaborated with many offices
on this today and opted to add in a slight to the west which
aligns with the better thinking on the location of the warm front.
They opted to keep a good portion of eastern Kentucky in a
marginal risk and that seems reasonable given some uncertainty
noted above. The main threat would be strong damaging wind gusts,
but a quick spin up tornado can't be ruled out. It could be
another warm day tomorrow depending on how cloud cover shakes out,
with low 90s for most most spots and heat indices near 100 degree
owing to the increasing moisture.
Tuesday night, expect shower and thunderstorm activity to continue
(chance of rain in the 30-60 percent range), as ensemble and
deterministic guidance show low pressure push further into the Ohio
Valley and mid-level heights fall some as trough axis pushes
eastward into the Ohio Valley. Given some cloud cover and potential
for rain will keep overnight lows more uniform in the low 70s for
most locations.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2024
The overall large scale flow pattern aloft in the extended will
feature what used to be tropical cyclone Beryl, a cold front
associated with it, and a larger scale trough aloft that Beryl will
be embedded in. The Beryl/cold front hybrid will move by to
northwest and north Wednesday and Wednesday night, and will bring
good chances for showers and storms to the area. The best rain
chances will occur on Wednesday, as Beryl moves closest to us and
during peak heating that afternoon and evening. The rain should
steadily taper off late Wednesday night, and be mostly out of the
area by early Thursday morning. However, a number of weaker impulses
are expected to pass over the area from Thursday onward, and will
bring chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to eastern
Kentucky at times all the way into the weekend and into the first of
next week. The rain chances will be highest during peak heating each
afternoon and evening.
The models actually have done a pretty good job handling the
evolution of what's left of Beryl in the extended, so felt good
going with the latest runs of the GFS and GFS Ensembles to augment
the latest NBM runs in the extended. Temperatures will cool off a
bit while Beryl moves by, with persistent clouds and precipitation
acting to moderate things a bit. After Beryl moves by, we should see
some cooler move in, allowing for a few days without daytime maxes
in the 90s(Wed thru Fri). However, we will likely see a return of
hot and muggy conditions Saturday through Monday, as fewer clouds
allow for better daytime heating, and we also see late day influxes
of warm moist air off the Gulf of Mexico into the region. No weather
hazards expected in the extended at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 9 2024
We will see VFR conditions for most locations for the period.
There remains the potential for low clouds and/or river valley fog
to develop into dawn with the outside chance either could drift
into a TAF site. The winds will be light and variable generally
less than 5 knots out of the south and southeast early this
morning becoming south to southwest during the day - potentially
gusting as high as 13 to 17 kts toward the Bluegrass region. VCTS
has been added to the TAF sites for the afternoon but confidence
is too low to include prevailing TS at this time.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 2:05 AM EDT---------------
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