LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 6:15 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...488
FXUS64 KLIX 062315
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
615 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 557 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
- Moisture will return to the area through the remainder of the
week, which will allow isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
to develop each afternoon.
- Heat index values will gradually increase through the end of
the week but are currently forecast to remain just below
hazardous levels.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
There has been very little change to the short term forecast logic
and expectations, so much of the short term discussion from the previous
AFD still applies. The atmospheric setup has the region remaining
between two upper level ridges...one over the Four Corners region
and the other over the western Atlantic through the short term.
The upper low over the southern Appalachians has opened and moved
downstream leaving a weakness in the mid and upper levels in its
wake. This weakness allows for Gulf moisture to stream northward.
Overall weather will be very typical of what we think of as
typical summertime/August conditions. Expect afternoon rain with a
possibility of some strong thunderstorms somewhere in the area
with POPs varying from 20%-50% across the area. Particular
attention will be paid to any sea/lake breeze boundaries to kick
off the afternoon convection. Temperatures will be in the 70s for
overnight lows and in the low 90s for daytime highs. When
combined with the relative humidity, we can expect maximum feels-
like temperatures between 100-105. All these temperatures may
climb by a degree or two over the next several days. Winds will
remain light, generally less than about 5 mph and somewhat
variable out of the south to east; an exception here is that any
of the stronger storms may generate locally stronger winds.
[Schlotz/Frye]
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
(Forecast/expectations have not changed since last night, so will
not make any changes to the overnight long term discussion.) A
fairly typical summertime pattern will be in place through the
extended period. The western periphery of the Bermuda ridge will be
over about the eastern half of the Gulf over the weekend, and cover
most of the northern Gulf by midweek next week. With ridging over
the Rockies, this will leave a bit of a weakness in the upper
pattern (592 dm vs 595 dm with the ridges) from near Memphis to
Dallas-Fort Worth for the first half of next week.
With weak onshore flow expected, and precipitable water values in
the 50th to 75th percentile range, isolated to scattered afternoon
convection looks to be the consistent trend for the first half of
the week. At this point, NBM PoP12 for the daytime hours Monday and
Tuesday looks to be a little on the high side (by 10-20 percent)
south of Interstate 10.
Temperatures will likely be within a few degrees of the 90 degree
mark each day, with timing of convective development determining
which side of 90 a location ends up on each day. Overnight lows in
the mid and upper 70s will continue. Heat index values will likely
approach Heat Advisory criteria (108F) along the Interstate 10/12
corridors in locations that don't have storms develop until late
afternoon on Tuesday and Wednesday. (RW)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
VFR conditions for all terminals overnight and most terminals will
continue these levels through Fri. The only location with high
enough TSRA chances will be HUM and this will be timed in
current taf set.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
The low-level pressure gradient may tighten slightly Friday into the
weekend as the influence of the Bermuda high and its surface high
pressure becomes better established over the eastern Gulf while
lower pressures persist over the southern Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley. This will alter flow to more of a south to
southeast direction today and then southeasterly to easterly
through the weekend. Speeds should generally remain around 5 to 10
knots, although periods of 10 to 15 knots will be possible over
the outer waters as an easterly fetch becomes better established
going into the weekend. Seas will generally remain 1 to 2 feet
today with 2 to 3 feet for the outer waters this weekend.
Increasing Gulf moisture will also bring a gradual increase in
showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and into early next
week. Convection will be most common, in typical summertime fashion,
over the coastal waters during the overnight and early morning
hours. Then activity shifts inland with the developing sea breeze
during the afternoon hours. Expect locally higher winds and seas
in and around convection. [Schlotz/Frye]
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...DS
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 6:15 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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