LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 3:10 AM EDT578
FXUS63 KLMK 090710
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
310 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry and hot/humid conditions are expected across the region today
with highs in the lower 90s and heat indices in the mid-upper 90s.
* Northwest flow aloft pattern will set up across the region as we
start the new work week. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms
will likely move southeast across portions of the region during
much of the week.
* Some of the storms during the week could be strong to severe with
torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.
Excessive rainfall and flash flooding could across portions of
east-central Kentucky over the coming week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
Currently, sat/obs show mostly clear skies over southern IN and
western KY. Some mid-high level cloud cover was observed over
central and eastern KY. Temperatures under the clear skies were in
the upper 60s, but under the cloud cover, temps were in the low-mid
70s. For the remainder of the overnight period, not expecting any
significant weather. Can't rule out some patchy fog down across
southern KY where appreciable rain fell Saturday afternoon/evening.
Expect temps to remain generally steady in the upper 60s to the
lower 70s through sunrise.
For today, the upper level pattern will feature a mainly zonal flow
across the Ohio Valley with a mid-level shortwave trough tracking
from the northern Plains and into the Midwest and northern Ohio
Valley. We're likely to see an MCS develop over the Midwest and
then watch it track east-southeast into Indiana and Ohio this
evening. Current guidance holds heights up a bit across our region
today which will likely keep the MCS track to our north. Despite
the ridge in place, we'll see instability develop during the
afternoon with 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE, though wind shear will be
quite weak across the region. Overall guidance tonight is a bit
drier, but can't rule out an isolated shower/storm across southern
KY. Afternoon highs today will be in the upper 80s to the lower
90s. With dewpoints in the low-mid 70s, we'll see afternoon heat
index readings rise into the mid-upper 90s.
For tonight, and MCS should be in progress across the eastern
Midwest and upper Ohio Valley. Based on the flow pattern aloft,
convective activity with the aforementioned shortwave trough axis
should remain generally north of the region. Late tonight, this
activity is forecast to push into eastern IN/western OH. There is a
slight risk that some convective outflow could reach our northeast
CWA and produce a small chance of a shower/storm. Current ensemble
guidance keeps PoPs at less than 10%. Lows tonight will remain mild
with readings in the lower 70s.
Moving into Monday, the flow aloft will remain mostly zonal with
perhaps a slight northwest component as ridging builds over the
western CONUS. The main belt of westerly flow will remain just to
our north and much of the day will remain dry across the region.
Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected with afternoon highs
warming into the lower 90s. Dewpoints will be in the low-mid 70s
and we'll see afternoon heat index values rise into the mid-upper
90s across the region. Some heat indices may approach 100 out
toward the I-165 corridor. By late afternoon, we'll need to be on
guard for some thunderstorm development as another perturbation will
be approaching the region from the northwest. Some of the early CAM
guidance suggests upstream MCS activity developing across IL/IN and
this may drop southeast into portions of southern IN and into the
northern Bluegrass. Current thinking is that much of this will
remain along/north of the I-64 corridor. The overall guidance has
trended a bit more south with this activity in the last few runs. So
we've gone ahead and upped PoPs in this area for Monday
afternoon/evening. Any convection Monday evening will likely
diminish after sunset with lows remaining mild in the low-mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
Moving into the extended forecast period, the forecast thinking has
not changed substantially in the last 24 hours. The flow regime
over the CONUS will feature an amplifying ridge over the western US
with downstream troughing across the eastern US. This will result
in a northwest flow regime across the Ohio Valley. Numerous
perturbations within the mean flow will drop southeast and into the
base of the trough during the week. Each of these perturbations
will likely generate clusters of showers and thunderstorms.
Initially, the storm track will be primarily north of the LMK CWA
across IL/IN/OH. However, as the amplifying ridge grows out west,
the flow pattern will tilt more to the north-northwest by mid-late
week. While the initial clusters of showers and storms will start
off passing north of the region, we expect the storm track to shift
southward with time and episodic bouts of convection will affect
portions of southern IN and central and eastern KY. Model soundings
through the period continue show plentiful instability and a modest
increase in the shear profile. So, strong to severe storms will be
possible with torrential rainfall and damaging winds being the main
threat. There will be the potential for excessive rainfall as some
areas will see repeated storms. As of this writing, the best
chances of excessive rainfall would likely be along and east of a
line from Salem, IN southeast to Somerset, KY.
The highest chances of precipitation look to be in the Wednesday
through Friday period. Forecast uncertainty increases by late week
as the models diverge a bit on the placement of a frontal boundary
which will likely be draped across the region. Depending on where
the boundary resides will determine where higher precipitation
chances will be needed. Overall, the pattern will be quite
unsettled for the mid-late part of the week with near normal
temperatures and above normal rainfall. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday
will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. However, expect temps to
cool off a bit with anticipated clouds/precipitation around in the
Thursday-Saturday period with highs mainly in the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026
VFR conditions are expected for the upcoming TAF period. Probably
will see some patchy fog develop across southern KY, especially in
areas that saw appreciable rainfall Saturday afternoon. Plan on
hitting the fog a little harder at BWG with some patchy fog also
over at LEX. Look for fog to mix out quickly after sunrise with
skies becoming partly cloudy with a diurnal Cu field expected.
Southwest winds will be seen during the daytime hours.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 3:10 AM EDT---------------
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