LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 1:44 AM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...633
FXUS64 KLIX 060644
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
- Moisture will return to the area through the remainder of the
week, which will allow isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
to develop each afternoon.
- Heat index values will gradually increase through the end of
the week but are currently forecast to remain just below
hazardous levels.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
The region will remain between two upper level ridges...one over
the Four Corners region and the other over the western Atlantic
through the short term. The upper low over the southern
Appalachians has opened and moved downstream, but again this
weakness in the mid and upper levels remain in its wake. At the
surface winds will generally be light and southerly. This has
helped bring the humidity values up once again, which is why
diurnally driven convection will continue to gradually increase
through the short term period as well. Surface temperatures will
still be around average for this time of year and with added
humidity the "feels like" temperatures will continue to heat up,
but still look to remain a degree or two below hazardous
thresholds across the CWFA. The cooler locations will be right
along the coast with the onshore flow with locations further
inland heating up into the middle 90s each afternoon. Going into
the weekend surface winds tend to shift a bit more easterly as
high pressure tries to build into the Southeast from the east. As
for POPs the best course of action through the short term is to
apply seasonal afternoon POPs. Not everyone will get rain, but we
will not exactly be dry either. Very much the epitome of summer
here on the northern Gulf Coast. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
A fairly typical summertime pattern will be in place through the
extended period. The western periphery of the Bermuda ridge will be
over about the eastern half of the Gulf over the weekend, and cover
most of the northern Gulf by midweek next week. With ridging over
the Rockies, this will leave a bit of a weakness in the upper
pattern (592 dm vs 595 dm with the ridges) from near Memphis to
Dallas-Fort Worth for the first half of next week.
With weak onshore flow expected, and precipitable water values in
the 50th to 75th percentile range, isolated to scattered afternoon
convection looks to be the consistent trend for the first half of
the week. At this point, NBM PoP12 for the daytime hours Monday and
Tuesday looks to be a little on the high side (by 10-20 percent)
south of Interstate 10.
Temperatures will likely be within a few degrees of the 90 degree
mark each day, with timing of convective development determining
which side of 90 a location ends up on each day. Overnight lows in
the mid and upper 70s will continue. Heat index values will likely
approach Heat Advisory criteria (108F) along the Interstate 10/12
corridors in locations that don't have storms develop until late
afternoon on Tuesday and Wednesday. (RW)
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
Outside of convection later this afternoon, mainly VFR conditions
expected. That said, MCB may see some brief reduced visibilities
right around sunrise. As for convection expect brief VIS/CIG
reductions at least in the heaviest activity. Convection should be
cleared by around sunset with lighter southerly winds. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
The low-level pressure gradient may tighten slightly Friday into the
weekend as surface high pressure becomes better established over the
eastern Gulf while lower pressures persist over the southern Plains
and lower Mississippi Valley. This will alter flow to more of a
south to southeast direction today and then southeasterly to
easterly through the weekend. Speeds should generally remain around
5 to 10 knots, although periods of 10 to 15 knots will be possible
over the outer waters as an easterly fetch becomes better
established going into the weekend. Seas will generally remain 1 to
2 feet today with 2 to 3 feet for the outer waters this weekend.
Increasing Gulf moisture will also bring a gradual increase in
showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and into early next
week. Convection will be most common, in typical summertime fashion,
over the coastal waters during the overnight and morning hours. Then
activity shifts inland with the developing sea breeze during the
afternoon hours. Expect locally higher winds and seas in and around
convection. (Frye)
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 1:44 AM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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