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040 FXUS64 KMOB 071000AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL500 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Monday)Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024Our Summer time pattern continues with the expectation of scattered to perhaps locally numerous showers and storms once again this afternoon and Monday afternoon. Primary hazards with storms remains potential for locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. PWATs remain high around 2 inches today which should promote heavy downpours and potential for localized nuisance flooding in urban or poor drainage areas. Temperatures will be hotonce again, with highs in the middle 90's for most locations bothdays. Afternoon mixing should allow for the interior portions of the forecast area to have lower afternoon dewpoints which should help keep heat index values below advisory criteria between 100 and 106 degrees. Nearer the coast of AL and the Florida panhandle dewpoints should stay relatively high despite mixing owing to the current onshore flow which should allow for heat index values to rise to the 105 to 110 range. Given this, I have went ahead with aheat advisory for the coastal counties of Alabama and the FloridaPanhandle. Monday should have slightly lower afternoon dewpoints and most of the area will likely remain below advisory criteria.A high risk of rip currents remains in place through tonight owing to the continued long period swell and onshore flow at our AL/FL beaches. Swell period gradually wanes into tonight and should allow for rip currents to diminish somewhat tonight into Monday.Given this, we will maintain a moderate risk of rip currents for the day Monday. Increasing onshore flow will likely necessitate another high risk of rip currents as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday. MM/25&&.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024Our forecast area will remain situated along the western peripheryof weak upper level ridging that will extend across the easternand southeastern states Monday night into Tuesday. An upper leveltrough will meanwhile be deepening across the central U.S. duringthis time and the remnants of Beryl will lift northward and becomeabsorbed into the trough across the ArkLaTex, Ozarks, and Mid-Mississippi Valley regions. Some of this remnant moisture may bedrawn into portions of our area on Tuesday between the trough toour west/northwest and the ridge across the eastern states.Precipitable water values may become enhanced between 2.25 and 2.5inches across a good part of our region during the day Tuesday.Showers and storms may become more numerous in coverage across the area, perhaps especially starting near the coast in the morning and developing across most of the forecast area by Tuesdayafternoon. We will have afternoon POPs ranging from 70-80% acrossthe region on Tuesday with rainfall amounts generally forecast toaverage between one quarter and one half inch. Locally higher totals in excess of 1-2" will certainly be possible given the deepmoisture in place over the area. The upper level trough/low and associated remnants of Beryl continue to lift toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday. A relatively light flow pattern will be in place over our forecast area Wednesday through Saturday underneathweak ridging aloft. Deep layer moisture will be sufficient to aidin the development of at least scattered showers and storms each day through the latter part of the week and into Saturday, with convective chances trending slightly lower between 30-50% coverage each afternoon. Afternoon highs ranging from around 90 to the lower 90s on Tuesday slow climb higher into the lower to mid 90s through the latter part of the week and into the upcomingweekend. Heat index readings are currently forecast to stay just below Heat Advisory criteria for the most part through the end of the week, but we could see values getting closer to the 105-110 degrees range by Friday and Saturday, especially near the coast./21&&.MARINE...Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024A light southwest to westerly flow pattern will prevail today before becoming southeasterly on Monday. Light to moderate southwesterly to westerly flow then prevails by mid to late week. Tropical Storm Beryl continues over the warm waters of the southwest Gulf and is expected to regain hurricane strength before coming ashore the central Texas coast Monday morning. Long period swell, associated with Beryl, will be common through Monday. MM/25&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 93 78 93 78 91 77 92 76 / 50 20 60 30 70 30 50 30 Pensacola 92 81 92 80 91 80 91 78 / 40 20 60 40 70 40 50 30 Destin 90 82 90 81 90 81 90 80 / 40 20 60 40 70 30 60 30 Evergreen 93 74 93 74 92 74 93 73 / 60 40 60 10 70 20 40 10 Waynesboro 95 74 96 74 92 74 93 72 / 60 30 60 10 70 20 30 10 Camden 95 74 96 74 92 74 92 72 / 60 40 60 20 70 20 30 10 Crestview 94 77 94 75 92 75 93 74 / 60 30 60 20 70 20 50 20 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ261>266. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
