Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #968 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE969
AWUS01 KWNH 072138
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-080330-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0968
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
537 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026
Areas affected...southern MO into northern AR and eastern OK
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 072136Z - 080330Z
SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is likely across
portions of southern MO into northern AR and eastern OK through
00Z. Training of heavy rain within the expanding area of
thunderstorms is expected to allow for 2 to 4 inch totals (locally
higher) and areas of flash flooding through 03Z.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery from 2120Z showed a
well-defined MCV over western MO with isolated convective
development to its southwest over southwestern MO. Meanwhile area
radar imagery showed a SSE propagating cluster of thunderstorms
along with an MCV over south-central OK, preceded by an outflow
boundary to its south, curving northward into eastern OK, where
cloud cover from the MO MCV has contributed to a differential
heating boundary between southwestern MO and areas west and north
of the MO MCV. A smaller outflow boundary was also analyzed in the
vicinity of the Ouachita Mountains over south-central AR. The
environment to the south and east of the large
outflow/differential heating boundary contained an estimated
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and PWs of 1.8 to 2.0 inches via 21Z SPC
mesoanalysis data.
While there is likely some weak subsidence behind a smaller MCV
over north-central AR, advancement of the western MO and OK MCVs
slowly southeast will be coincident with an increase in the
southwesterly 925-850 mb winds from eastern OK into western
AR/southwestern MO into the 15-25 kt range per recent RAP
forecasts. The approaching mid-level ascent coupled with low level
overrunning beneath broadly diffluent/divergent flow aloft should
support an increase in thunderstorms from eastern OK into southern
MO and central/northern AR and over the next 2-3 hours. Individual
cells tracking from west to east are expected to focus axes of
training heavy rain with 1 to 2+ inch per hour rainfall, as the
cluster of storms tracks eastward/southeastward with time. Some
areas of flash flooding may occur as a result.
Otto
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37479106 37219025 36409024 35699084 35329144
34769257 34689380 35179469 36189507 37249365
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #968 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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