Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #600 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE129
AWUS01 KWNH 092157
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-100300-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0600
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
556 PM EDT Tue Jul 09 2024
Areas affected...portions of the Ohio Valley
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 092155Z - 100300Z
Summary...Training/repeating rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr may lead to
localized totals of 3-5". Isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding are possible.
Discussion...Post-tropical cyclone Beryl is tracking northeast at
24 mph across the MS/OH Valleys this afternoon, and convection has
become focused primarily east of the center (both along the warm
front and across the warm sector (post-frontal). Discrete
supercells have become the most efficient rainfall producers, with
rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr. Otherwise, convection is generally
producing rates of 1"/hr or less (with stratiform rainfall north
of the center generally producing 0.5"/hr or less). Along and
ahead of the warm front, the mesoscale environment is
characterized by ML CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, precipitable water
values of 2.0-2.3 inches (near record values, per SPC sounding
climatology from surrounding sites), and ample effective bulk
shear of 45-55 kts.
With convection is remaining rather progressive due to the strong
dynamics of this post-tropical system, there is a distinct risk of
localized training/repeating of heavy rainfall rates (1-2"/hr) in
and around the aforementioned warm front (stretching from southern
IL across the IN/KY border region). The 18z HREF probability
matched mean QPF depicts localized totals of 3-5" (with
corresponding 40-km neighborhood probabilities for 3" exceedance
of 20-30%). A much broader region to the north and east of the
cyclone has relatively high odds of localized 2" exceedance (per
40-km neighborhood probabilities of 40-70%), and corresponding
Flash Flood Guidance (3-6 hr) generally ranges from 2-3". As a
result, isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
possible (with the greatest risk over southeast IN and adjacent
portions of IL/KY).
Churchill
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LOT...LSX...OHX...PAH...
ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 40708771 40468699 40008630 39578588 38888511
37718531 36608585 36338744 36668815 37898853
39648992 40328948 40648867
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #600 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
