MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 4, 6:36 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...972
FXUS64 KMOB 041136
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
636 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
- Isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible
each afternoon through the rest of the week, potentially
increasing in coverage over the weekend.
- Heat indices will trend upward through late week, reaching
around 100-107 degrees Friday through the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
Have updated to make minor adjustments to temperature trends this
morning and also to include more of the near shore waters with
slight chance pops for the morning hours. /29
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
A closed upper-level low centered over Georgia continues to wrap an
unseasonably dry air mass into the forecast area above the 700 mb
level. At the surface, the weak cold front that ushered in cooler,
drier conditions on Monday is gradually washing out over the
northern Gulf coast. As influence from the upper low weakens,
temperatures today should rebound back to near or slightly above
seasonal norms, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s. Despite
mid-level dry air, low-level instability and sufficient moisture
below 700 mb should support isolated to scattered afternoon shower
development (15-30% PoPs), mainly along and east of the I-65
corridor or along sea/bay breeze boundaries given the northwest
flow. While a storm or two cannot be ruled out, a lingering stout
capping inversion near 700 mb should keep updrafts relatively
shallow and preclude robust thunderstorm initiation.
Wednesday into Thursday, the upper low will drift slowly northward
while weakening, eventually getting absorbed into the northern
stream by Thursday. As a result, northwest flow aloft will relax,
leaving the area in a weak/variable steering regime between the
Bermuda High to the east and the Monsoon Ridge over the Desert
Southwest. With that, the sea breeze will be able to push farther
inland each afternoon and moisture will gradually increase. Rain
chances increase modestly into the 20-40% range for Wednesday and
Thursday, centered mainly along and between the I-10 and I-65
corridors, or where sea breeze convergence is maximized. Mid-level
capping weakens Wednesday and erodes altogether by Thursday,
supporting deeper convection and more lightning potential with any
storms.
Friday into the weekend, low to mid-level flow is expected to become
generally southerly or southeasterly as the Bermuda High attempts to
expand westward into the Southeast states. This will come with an
increase in deep tropical moisture, driving afternoon heat index
values back into the 100-107 degree range. Expect scattered coverage
of afternoon showers and storms, possibly increasing to numerous in
spots by Sunday as PWATs rise to over 2 inches in association with
the remnants of a tropical easterly wave. Coverage would also be
enhanced if an upper trough over the Great Lakes digs farther south
into the Tennessee Valley and weakens the ridge overhead. Trends
will be monitored for heavy rainfall potential, but there are
currently no indications of anything high-impact.
Beach Forecast... A Low risk of rip currents is expected at all area
beaches today through the remainder of the workweek. JGC/98
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
Some patchy fog is possible mainly over interior areas early this
morning and again late tonight. Isolated to possibly scattered
showers and storms are anticipated along and east of I-65 this
afternoon. MVFR conditions will be possible with the patchy fog
and stronger showers and storms, with VFR conditions otherwise
anticipated through tonight. A northwesterly flow around 5 knots
is expected over interior areas today while closer to the coast a
west to southwest flow at 5-10 knots develops. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026
A light northwesterly flow develops this morning then becomes a
light to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow this afternoon
which continues into Wednesday. A southeasterly flow develops on
Thursday then becomes easterly to southeasterly for Friday and
Saturday. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 93 74 94 74 / 20 0 20 0
Pensacola 91 77 92 78 / 20 10 20 0
Destin 89 79 89 79 / 10 10 10 10
Evergreen 93 71 94 71 / 20 10 20 10
Waynesboro 94 71 96 72 / 10 0 10 0
Camden 91 71 93 73 / 10 10 20 0
Crestview 93 73 94 73 / 30 10 30 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 4, 6:36 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...---------------
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