PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 8:15 PM EDT459
FXUS61 KPBZ 060015
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
815 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Discussion for today was removed as additional flooding risks
decrease.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An active pattern continues, potentially into the start of
next week, with high degrees of uncertainty in hazardous weather
risks.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The general storm environment outlook for today is likely to
hold into early next week: moist airmass plus weak shear
resulting in diurnally-driven thunderstorms that may have
spottier coverage and limited damaging wind/flood risks. This is
due to the slow progression of an upper shortwave through the
Ohio River Valley that does little to change the entrenched
warm, moist airmass.
Due to weak flow, the assessment of "favored areas" and "hazard
risks" is likely to remain more of a day-off duty as prior day's
convective evolution within and upstream of the region plays a
larger role in that day's outlook. Additionally, better modeling
of small-scale embedded waves within the weak, broad eastern
CONUS troughing in the day 1-2 range may capture subtle features
that could enhance thunderstorm coverage and hazard risks for a
given day or even squelch such occurrences. The most that can be
said at this time, then, is individuals should be aware that
each day could see afternoon/evening thunderstorms worth
monitoring for potential damaging wind and/or flood risks, both
which should be clearer the morning of.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thunderstorms swept through nearly the whole area with some last
storms moving through LBE, DUJ, and MGW before 02Z. Chances of
showers have decreased overnight with widespread storms today,
thus the VCSH mention was removed for most ports.
Because of storms from Wednesday, mentions for patchy morning
fog or vis restrictions were noted for most ports, save PIT.
Couldn't also rule out some low stratus development though low-
to-mid clouds may inhibit widespread development.
Any vis restrictions are expected to clear in the morning,
giving way to increasing chances of showers in the late morning
through the early afternoon, then eventually more storm
development. Similar to the day prior, coverage and location
remain low confidence, so PROB30s were noted for now.
Outlook...
Daily shower and thunderstorm chances expected through Sunday,
especially during afternoon and evening hours, as a series of
disturbances cross the Upper Ohio Valley. There is also a
potential for patchy fog and stratus with low level moisture in
place during early morning hours each day, especially in areas
that see rainfall the evening prior.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Frazier/Milcarek
AVIATION...Cermak/WM/Milcarek
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 8:15 PM EDT---------------
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