IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 4, 1:43 AM EDT570
FXUS63 KIWX 040543
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
143 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions into Wednesday. Expect partly to mostly clear
skies and light winds. Highs will range from 77 to 86 degrees,
warmest Wednesday.
- Chances for showers and storms return Wednesday night and
persist into the weekend. The best potential (~30-60 percent)
will be Wednesday night into Thursday, then periods of
showers with generally lower chances (~20 to 40 percent)
through the weekend. Highs will be in the 80s Thursday into
the weekend, warmest Sunday.
- Warmer and more humid airmass moves into the region early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026
Upper level ridge axis sitting right over the region and then
goes back southwestward into the Four Corners region. This will
keep mostly clear skies across the area through Wednesday
morning. Pretty seasonable temperatures will also continue
across the area with highs in the upper 70s near Lake Michigan
and low 80s elsewhere through Wednesday.
Troughing centered over central Canada will begin to push
south and eastward into the upper Midwest and then into the
Great Lakes and will increase chances for showers/thunderstorms
for mainly the northwestern parts of the CWA by Wednesday
evening and spread southeastward over the rest of the area
by early Thursday as a cold front pushes through. The better
chances for precipitation at this time will be on Thursday with
generally 30 to 60 percent chance of precipitation across the
area. WPC has our CWA under a marginal chance of exceeding flash
flood guidance for Wednesday night through Thursday with PWATs
of around 1.5" to almost 2" and surface dew points in the 70s along
and ahead of the frontal boundary. So will need to watch
carefully on how this develops over the next few days. A more
cyclonic flow to zonal flow then remains over the area well into
the weekend. This will bring the potential for periods of
showers/thunderstorms especially during the afternoon/early
evening periods.
Ridging then develops over the southeast CONUS by Monday and
builds northward into our area. This will bring warmer and more
humid conditions across the region next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026
Predominantly VFR conditions at the terminals. Some ground
fog/BR is possible at KFWA between 9-13z, but confidence is not
high enough to include at this point. Will amend if BR/FG
development shows up in area observations.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...MCD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 4, 1:43 AM EDT---------------
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