CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 2:01 AM EDT798
FXUS61 KCLE 090601
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
201 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture associated with the remnants of Beryl will approach the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday and interact with a southward
moving frontal boundary. The remnant low will continue northeast
into Canada on Thursday. High pressure builds in Friday and
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:30 AM Update...
The forecast remains on track this morning, so just tweaked
temperatures and cloud cover. New forecast package coming
by 4 AM.
9:30 PM Update...
No changes with this update. Will be watching closely for 00Z
suite of model data which is starting to come in.
Previous Discussion...
Main concern of the near term period will be late Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning as the remnants of Beryl begins to
interact with a frontal boundary across the region. Heavy rain
will be possible with this initial surge of precipitation, in
addition to a low chance for a tornado along a lifting warm
front, mainly between 2 AM and 8 AM late Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning. Low-level SRH and low LCLs appear
favorable for rotating showers/storms, though confidence is low
on updraft strength and available instability given the
overnight timing. More details on the heavy rain/severe
potential for late Wednesday morning/afternoon associated with
the remnants of Beryl will be discussed in the below section.
Otherwise, mainly quiet weather is anticipated on Tuesday as
clouds begin to thicken from the southwest, in anticipation of
the arrival of the remnants of Beryl. Weak isentropic lift ahead
of Beryl could allow for some light precipitation Tuesday
afternoon, with heavier precipitation becoming more likely along
the western periphery of the baroclinic zone across NW OH
Tuesday evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The remnant surface low pressure of Beryl will be tracking through
the Upper Ohio Valley and into the eastern Great Lakes region on
Wednesday into Wednesday evening. This system will become swept up
with a shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes region mid
week. Short term model guidance is showing that an initial round of
showers and thunderstorms will move through the area early Wednesday
morning with a warm front and the surge of tropical moisture ahead
of the remnants of Beryl. There may be a brief break in the rain
chances later in the morning on Wednesday before another round of
convection flares up midday into the afternoon. The better potential
for the round of convection will be for the eastern half of the CWA
or for NEOH and NWPA. The latest NAM forecast soundings suggest
MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/Kg Wednesday afternoon with impressive speed
and directional shear yielding 50 knots of deep layer effective bulk
shear and curved hodographs. There will be a marginal threat for
severe weather with the convection predawn Wednesday morning
associated with the warm front and the convection that develops
Wednesday afternoon. The main threat will be isolated damaging wind
gusts as well as the potential for a tornado or two. Given the very
rich tropical airmass and moisture associated with this system,
there is the potential for heavy rainfall and a limited flash
flooding threat. Average QPF through Wednesday night will be between
1 and 2 inches with isolated amounts up to 3 inches.
Mid level dry air will punch in from the southwest late Wednesday
evening which should help end our rain chances from west to east.
Weak high pressure moves in late Wednesday night into Thursday.
Slight POPs may linger downwind of Lake Erie over the Snowbelt
region of NEOH and NWPA on Thursday. Temperatures will be with in a
few degrees of seasonable averages for early July.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A broad mid and upper level trough will linger across the Great
Lakes region later this week. The mid level pattern flattens
becoming more west-northwesterly over the area as a ridge of high
pressure builds from the western CONUS into the Central Plains this
weekend. This weather pattern may favor some "ridge riders" coming
over the ridge and down through the Great Lakes region towards the
end of the week into early next week. We will be on the outskirts of
the heat dome building over the western and central CONUS.
Temperatures will slowly climb through the 80s into the lower 90s by
this weekend. Will mention some scattered chance POPs through the
weekend. It will feel like Summer with hot and humid weather.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR will prevail through today as high pressure gradually
departs. The remnants of Beryl will lift out of the Mid
Mississippi Valley tonight, lifting a warm front across the
region. A band of showers is expected along the front lifting
from southwest to northeast late tonight and Wednesday morning,
and this will bring MVFR eventually dropping to IFR, but much
of the rain should hold off until after the TAF period for KCAK,
KYNG, and KERI, so held onto VFR there.
Light S to SW winds early this morning will become WSW at 5-10
knots late this morning and this afternoon before becoming N and
eventually ENE tonight.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected Wednesday as the remnants of Beryl
move through the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms
throughout the CWA. Non-VFR may persist through Thursday in
isolated showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet weather is expected on Lake Erie through Tuesday with light
winds, but the remnants of Beryl approaching from the southwest
Tuesday night and Wednesday will lead to increasing winds and waves.
Easterly winds will increase to 10-15 knots Tuesday night, with ENE
winds of 15-20 knots Wednesday. This will build 2 to 4 foot waves in
the western and central basins. We may be closer to Small Craft
advisory conditions by Wednesday. Winds will shift to the NW
Wednesday night behind the remnant low as speeds stay around 10-20
knots. Waves will still be around 2 to 4 foot waves into the central
and eastern basins before winds turn W and decrease to 10-15 knots
Thursday. Lighter winds from the southwest around 5-10 knots will
return by Friday into the weekend.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Kahn
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Griffin
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 2:01 AM EDT---------------
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