Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #934 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE109
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0934
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2026
Areas affected...New England
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 031908Z - 040030Z
SUMMARY...The potential for an additional 1 to 2 inches (spot max
of 3 inches) will maintain at least an isolated flash flood threat
across New England through about 00Z. Peak hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches is expected with the threat ending from west to east into
the evening.
DISCUSSION...Trends in radar imagery across the Northeast over the
past 3 hours showed weakening associated with
showers/thunderstorms over southeastern New England, while new
shower/thunderstorm development was underway to the west. 1845Z
radar imagery showed a narrow axis of higher reflectivity
extending along the VT/NH border into western MA and along the
NY/CT border, just ahead of a cold front. The 18Z SPC mesoanalysis
showed MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg in place from CT into central MA,
VT/NH and western ME along with PWs that increased from 1.8 inches
near the cold front to about 2.3 inches along the coast of
southeastern New England.
The RAP forecasts the cold front to track east through New
England, clearing much of the region by 00Z. This progressive
motion should limit much of flash flood threat over the next 3-5
hours as cells are not likely to remain over any given location
for too long. However, portions of southern VT/NH into central and
western MA/CT have lowered flash flood guidance values of about 1
inch or less in an hour. Hourly flash flood guidance of up to 2
inches or higher is in place for the remaining portions of New
England. There is some potential for line segments to push out
ahead more quickly than portions to the south, setting up
alignment with the mean southwesterly steering flow and supporting
brief training. This would allow for hourly rainfall totals of 1-2
inches and potential for flash flooding. Through 00Z, additional
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected for portions of New England,
with a spot maximum total up to 3 inches possible. Isolated to
widely scattered instances of flash flooding may occur through
about 00Z, at which point the deeper moisture should have moved
out of most of the region, ending the flash flood threat.
Otto
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...CAR...GYX...OKX...
ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...
LAT...LON 45797017 45686954 45196932 44116939 42537013
41457126 41117280 41127343 41367365 42107333
43427227 45127122 45647069
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #934 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE----------------
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