WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Aug 1, 12:26 PM CDT009
AGUS74 KWCO 011734
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #169 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding
WHERE: Western Illinois and Indiana
WHEN: Through the afternoon
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF: 2 - 4", locally higher (WPC, HREF)
QPE: 1 - 2" (MRMS, 24 hr)
Rates: 1 - 2"/hour (WPC)
Soil Moisture: 25 - 50%? (0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT)
Streamflows: Normal to below normal (USGS)
DISCUSSION...
Rainfall is expected to expand across portions of western Illinois
and Indiana through the afternoon bringing the threat of isolated
flash, urban, and small stream flooding. Soils and streamflows are on
the dry side which should help limit any widespread impacts; however,
locally heavy rainfall rates or repeating rounds of rainfall could
overwhelm soil infiltration capacity lead help limit any widespread impacts; however,
locally heavy rainfall rates or repeating rounds of rainfall could
overwhelm soil infiltration capacity leading to isolated flooding
impacts.ding to isolated flooding
impacts.
The National Water Model (NWM) Short Range Forecast (SRF) continues
to show isolated streamflow responses across the state beginning
early this afternoon. Probabilities for rapid-onset flooding are
slowly increasing with probs up to 50% from Champaign, IL to
Indianapolis, IN (shown right). Additionally, the SRF unit discharge
service is showing isolated streams with unit discharge up to 500
cfs/sqmi. Given the isolated but robust responses from the NWM,
potential for repeated rounds, and higher rainfall rates, isolated
flooding impacts will be possible.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at:
weather.gov/owp/operations
//Smith
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...ILX...LOT...PAH...IND...LMK
ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...WPC
Source:
WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Aug 1, 12:26 PM CDT---------------
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