Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1545 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY [watch probability: 20%]661
ACUS11 KWNS 062153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062152
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-062345-
Mesoscale Discussion 1545
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024
Areas affected...the Adirondacks into Parts of northern New England
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 062152Z - 062345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some damaging wind threat is apparent this afternoon
across parts of the Adirondacks into northern new England. A watch
is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms, some of which are displaying supercell
characteristics on radar, are ongoing this afternoon across parts of
the Adirondacks into northern New England. These storms are situated
in a fairly healthy mid- and upper-level jet for July, with 50-60
kts of effective bulk shear. Thermodynamically, the environment is
fairly moist, with 1.6-1.8" of precipitable water, 1000-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE, and pockets of 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates. All of this
suggests the continued potential for supercells with damaging gusts
due to large water loading. Some clustering may occur with time, and
this may increase the damaging wind threat with storms. However, a
watch is not anticipated at this time due to the expected sparse
coverage of damaging gusts.
..Supinie/Hart.. 07/06/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43907535 45067466 45107175 45917057 45926959 45416874
44806874 44606888 43916941 42607105 42157262 41997439
42627538 43907535
Source:
Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1545 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY [watch probability: 20%]----------------
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