PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 19, 11:59 PM CDT114
FXUS63 KPAH 200459
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Several chances for rain are in the forecast into next week.
The greatest chances (up to 60%) will be this afternoon and
Tuesday afternoon. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible Tuesday. Localized flash flooding will be a concern
this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.
- A Heat Advisory is in effect through Tuesday evening for most
of the region. Daily high temperatures trend more into the
lower 90s through early next week with heat index values
between 100-105 degrees. The hottest day will be Tuesday with
heat index readings as high as 110 degrees.
- Northerly flow may briefly cause moderate unhealthy air
quality conditions across the far north today while the latter
half of next week may pose a more impactful risk due to the
ongoing Ontario wildfire smoke.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
The Quad State region will sit on the inflection point between
troughing to the east and ridging to the west (across the Rockies).
This will allow for northwest flow into the region aloft. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will develop each afternoon during peak
heating. The convection will be a bit more focused this afternoon
and evening as a frontal remains nearly stationary across the
region. The main concern this afternoon will be the very heavy
rainfall rates on already saturated soils. PWAT values are on the
order of 2-2.4 inches this afternoon with dewpoints pushing near
80degrees, again pointing at that heavy rainfall/flooding potential.
The lack of wind shear and the more widespread nature of the
convection should limit any severe potential through this evening.
A much stronger cold front will sag south through the area on
Tuesday, bringing storms, but some relief from the heat/humidity.
Instability is forecast to be 2000-3000 J/kg with deep layer shear
increasing to around 20-30 kts, especially across southern IL into
southwest IN. The combination of increased wind speeds aloft and the
instability, will lead to another round of strong to severe storms.
Currently, the greatest wind shear is expected to remain to the
northeast of the area, but it will definitely be worth keeping an
eye on over the next few days. In fact, southwest IN is already
highlighted with a slight risk of severe weather on Tuesday with a
marginal draped to the southwest of that area. At an early glance,
damaging winds and large hail would be the main threats.
Outside of any thunderstorm activity, heat index values are expected
to be in the 100-105 degree range through at least Tuesday as
temperatures warm into the low 90s and dewpoints run in the 70s. In
fact, some locations could even see heat index values approach or
exceed 110 degrees by Tuesday (the hottest day). This has lead to
the issuance of a Heat Advisory for much of the area through Tuesday.
Wildfire smoke from Canadian wildfires will likely become an issue
at times through next week. In fact, it may become more widespread
across the Quad State toward the middle to end of next week with a
more northerly component to the wind aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026
MVFR fog will be common overnight, with IFR or lower conditions
possible at all sites. Coverage of any convection will be too
low to mention in the forecasts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075-080>082-
084>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...None.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>017-021-022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 19, 11:59 PM CDT---------------
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