MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 16, 6:53 PM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...395
FXUS64 KMOB 162353
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
653 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 653 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026
- Isolated showers and storms through Friday with increased
chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
- Temperatures will continue to rise through the rest of the
week and into early next week. Forecast heat indices in the
100 to 107 range this weekend and 105 to 111 next week for
portions of the area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026
The late afternoon/early evening convection has already dissipated
and we do not expect any further development through the remainder
of the night. Removed the slight chance of early evening showers
and thunderstorms for areas across inland southeast Mississippi
and southwest Alabama, and updated the Zone Forecast Product. /22
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026
An upper and surface ridge will gradually move west across the
northern Gulf through the weekend. Meanwhile, a weak sfc/upper low
is expected to develop across the northeastern Gulf this weekend
and move northeast through early next week as a trough moves off
the east coast. Moisture levels will increase Saturday into Sunday
with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms especially
across the eastern half of the area. The upper ridge west of the
area will expand eastward late this weekend into early next week
bringing lower rain chances and hotter temps. Highs will be in the
low to mid 90s through Saturday, warming into the mid and upper
90s for next week. The higher moisture levels combined with
increased temps will lead to increasing heat stress. Heat Index
values will climb into the 100 to 107 range this weekend and 105
to 111 or higher next week. A Heat Advisory will likely be
required with Excessive Heat products possible as well for parts
of the area next week. /13
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through Friday afternoon as we only
expect and increase to broken clouds from 15-18kt feet late
tonight through Friday. Light westerly winds overnight shift
northwesterly 5-10 knots Friday morning. /22
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026
No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 75 96 76 96 / 10 10 20 20
Pensacola 78 96 78 96 / 0 10 20 40
Destin 79 95 79 94 / 0 10 30 60
Evergreen 72 93 73 93 / 10 10 20 30
Waynesboro 73 95 74 95 / 10 10 10 10
Camden 73 90 74 91 / 10 10 20 20
Crestview 74 95 74 95 / 0 10 30 50
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 16, 6:53 PM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...---------------
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