ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 15, 8:00 PM EDT388
FXUS61 KILN 160000
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot, humid, and hazy conditions continue.
2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop Friday
and continue into the weekend bringing a risk for localized flash
flooding and gusty winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
The mid level ridge begins to flatten by Thursday, continuing to
shift to a more northwest to southeast orientation. This will
introduce northwesterly flow across the Great Lakes region and will
help shift the axis of warmest temperatures a bit farther south and
west compared to today. This, combined with an increase in cloud
cover and wildfire smoke from Canada/ northern Minnesota should help
keep temperatures in the low 90s for Thursday. For now, have opted
against continuing any heat headlines given more marginal conditions
and shifting axis of warmest temps.
Despite not continuing headlines, we will still have some warm
summertime days in store for the end of the working week! Plan for
afternoon feels like temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with hazy
skies. Warm temperatures continue into the weekend, but thunderstorms
are reintroduced to the forecast and convection/ cloud cover will
influence daytime highs.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
Shower and thunderstorm chances are reintroduced to the forecast on
Friday and Saturday as a midlevel wave moves through the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley region. Currently, the blend paints higher PoPs west
of I-75 on Friday and then shifts that corridor east on Saturday.
Area wide, a very moist environment will be in place, with PWATs
around 2 inches and surface Tds are forecast to reach the low/mid 70s
again on both days. However, the most robust deep layer shear remains
well north of our area both days and guidance suggests that the
highest MLCAPE on Friday will remain along the Ohio river and then
areas west. For Saturday, instability looks to be a bit more
widespread (around 2000 J/kg+).
With all that being said, heavy rainfall and isolated flooding
issues is the hazard we have the most confidence in right now. There
could very well be a low end severe threat each day (would be gusty
winds with collapsing storms) but the individual pieces haven't quite
come together yet for higher severe concern at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW Cu will linger about SW sites of KCVG/KLUK/KILN for an hour or
so before skies trend clearer (aside from a FEW cirrus) for the
overnight. This will set the stage for some river valley BR/FG at
KLUK and other vulnerable spots. As such, have maintained a handful
of VSBY restrictions to fog-prone sites, with KLUK most likely to
experience LIFR/VLIFR VSBY in the several hours around 12z.
BR/FG burns off after daybreak and SCT VFR Cu develop. Cu could go
BKN, especially at KCVG/KLUK after 18z, but have maintained
persistence for now. Cannot completely rule out some ISO SHRA near
KCVG/KLUK/KILN/KDAY, but expected limited coverage precludes
inclusion in the fcst at this time.
Light/VRB winds through sunrise will go more out of the NW at 5-8kts
during the daytime.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Friday and Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for OHZ070-071-
077-078.
Air Quality Alert from 7 AM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night
for OHZ026-034-035-044-045-052-054-063-064-072>074-079>082-088.
Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Thursday
night for OHZ042-043-051-053-060>062.
Air Quality Alert until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ046-055-056-
065.
Air Quality Alert from 6 AM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night
for OHZ046-055-056-065.
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for KYZ091>093.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ050-058-059-066.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for INZ074.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Aiena
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 15, 8:00 PM EDT---------------
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