ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 14, 7:30 PM EDT144
FXUS61 KILN 142330
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
730 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat Advisory has been issued for tomorrow.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid for the rest of the week.
2) Weather becomes more active at the end of the week into the
weekend with thunderstorm chances increasing.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Mid level high pressure continues to be the primary influencer of our
sensible weather through mid-week. With strong subsidence and mostly
clear skies, the warming trend continues and high temperatures on
Wednesday are forecast to reach the low 90s. This, combined with dew
points in the low 70s during the afternoon hours will result in heat
indices along and north of I-70 reaching around 100F. Have issued a
Heat Advisory to cover the afternoon hours on Wednesday, with
anticipated hot and humid conditions. Skies will be mostly clear,
with some scattered cumulus, though it does appear via Vertically
Integrated Smoke that smoke from Canadian wildfires is wrapping
around the ridge, so we may see some high level haze.
By Thursday, the ridge is forecast to flatten slightly and shift to
a northwest to southeast axis, keeping the southern portion of our
CWA under more stagnant conditions and introducing some subtle
northwesterly flow across our north. As such, the axis of highest
apparent temperatures looks to shift southward, introducing heat
indices near 100 for areas along and south of I-70. May end up
needing a new Heat Advisory for this area Thursday, but will hold at
this time.
The high will continue to flatten and reorient NW to SE as we head
toward the weekend, introducing additional northwesterly flow and
chances for thunderstorms. Hot and humid conditions look to linger,
with apparent temperatures in the 90s expected through the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
The mid level ridge breaks down near the end of the week, introducing
northwesterly flow across the Great lakes region. A weak shortwave is
still progged to swing through the larger flow into the Ohio Valley
region on Friday through Saturday. This reintroduces showers and
thunderstorms into the forecast Friday into the weekend. As mentioned
in the previous discussion, overall forcing from the shortwave is
weak, however, daytime MLCAPE is forecast to be around 2,000 J/kg,
low level lapse rates will be above 7 C/km, and PWATs around 2+
inches both Friday and Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms that
develop will likely be heavy rain producers and have the potential
for strong winds with downward momentum transfer.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No change is forecast reasoning for the 00Z TAF issuance. High
pressure will produce mostly clear skies and light winds through the
period. Patchy fog will develop early Wednesday morning at the prone
sites of ILN and LUK based on local effects.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Friday and Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>062.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Wednesday night for OHZ070-071-
077-078.
Air Quality Alert until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ046-055-056-
065.
Air Quality Alert from 6 AM to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ046-055-
056-065.
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Wednesday night for KYZ091>093.
IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Wednesday
night for INZ050-058-059-066.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for INZ050.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Wednesday night for INZ074.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Aiena
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 14, 7:30 PM EDT---------------
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