MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 12, 6:41 PM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...643
FXUS64 KMOB 122341
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
641 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
- Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Tuesday, with periods of heavy rainfall that may lead
to localized flooding. Any stronger storms will also be
capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning.
- A High risk of rip currents develops along the Northwest
Florida beaches this evening through Tuesday. A Moderate risk
continues for the remainder of area beaches through Thursday.
- Hotter conditions return Wednesday through the end of the
week, with afternoon heat indices climbing back into the
triple digits.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Currently, convection is overrunning a slowing boundary across
the northern half of the forecast area. This convection is
weakening, transitioning to more of a water issue. Continuing to
monitor. The current forecast is on track, so no updates needed at
this time. /16
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
A highly positively-tilted upper trough continues to sag south
across the Tennessee Valley and is forecast to gradually close off
into a broad upper low through tonight. A pronounced surface
reflection is evident via surface obs and visible satellite with a
broad circulation drifting south into central Tennessee. Meanwhile,
deep tropical moisture continues to increase across the northern
Gulf Coast, where low-level convergence has resulted in rounds of
widespread showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall and
localized gusty winds. This activity continues to shift inland
through the afternoon along the seabreeze/outflow boundary.
Redevelopment has also been noted along the coast due to residual
outflow boundary interactions. Moderate instability and very
moist profiles aloft may support a few marginally severe storms
this afternoon, with damaging wind gusts being the primary
concern. In addition, any training or slow-moving storms may
continue to cause localized flooding concerns through the
afternoon.
Heading into Monday and Tuesday, height falls associated with
southward-moving upper low, combined with a persistent convergence
zone over the nearshore Gulf early Monday morning, will support
another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms, particularly
near the coast during the morning hours and spreading inland once
again for the afternoon. With deep moisture in place (PWATs up to
around 2.3 inches), storms will continue to be efficient rainfall
producers, which may lead to localized flash flooding. The WPC
continues to outlook locations along and south of I-10 in a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Monday, with a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for the remainder of the area. The
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall continues for Tuesday as the
upper low continues to slowly drift south, likely as far south as
central Alabama. Thus, coverage of showers and storms will remain
numerous to widespread for Tuesday, especially over the interior. We
anticipate a general 1-3 inches of rainfall across the forecast area
from this afternoon through Tuesday with isolated higher amounts of
up to 4 inches possible.
Rain chances finally begin to diminish on Wednesday as the upper low
retrogrades westward and upper ridging attempts to build over the
northern Gulf through late week. Thus, a more typical summertime
pattern is anticipated through the remainder of the week, with more
isolated to scattered coverage of showers and storms and a return to
hotter conditions. Highs rebounding into the low to mid 90s along
with lingering humidity will support afternoon heat indices well
into the triple digits for Wednesday through the end of the week.
Increasing westerly flow over marine zones will lead to a High risk
of rip currents for our Florida beaches from this evening through
Tuesday. A Moderate risk of rip currents continues for the remainder
of the Alabama and western Florida Panhandle beaches through
Thursday. JGC/98
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
A line of showers and thunderstorms will dominate the initial
portion of the forecast, with drops in conditions to mid level
MVFR levels. Operations north of Highway 84 may be impacted this
evening. This convection will decrease through the evening, then
shift south of the coast overnight. Mid level MVFR conditions may
impact impact coastal areas. The showers and thunderstorms will
shift inland late morning into the afternoon hours. Drops to low
end MVFR levels are possible in the stronger storms.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Light to moderate southerly to southwesterly flow continues today,
becoming a moderate westerly flow Monday. A Small Craft Advisory is
now in effect for Monday afternoon given increasing potential for 20-
25 knot winds with locally higher gusts. Light to occasionally
moderate westerly flow prevails for Tuesday through the remainder of
the week. Seas remain 2 to 3 feet through today, increasing to 3-5
feet on Monday afternoon, decreasing back to 2-3 feet for the
remainder of the week. Expect higher winds and seas with any
thunderstorms through mid week, with greatest coverage of storms
each morning over the marine waters. A few waterspouts cannot be
ruled out near the coast. JGC/98
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 73 85 71 87 / 30 80 40 60
Pensacola 77 86 74 88 / 60 70 50 60
Destin 78 87 76 87 / 60 70 70 60
Evergreen 72 85 69 86 / 50 80 40 80
Waynesboro 72 86 70 86 / 60 60 40 70
Camden 72 85 69 84 / 60 80 70 80
Crestview 73 86 70 88 / 50 80 50 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for GMZ631-632-
650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 12, 6:41 PM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...---------------
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