ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 11, 7:52 PM EDT433
FXUS61 KILN 112352
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
752 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cancelled flood watch for Miami and Whitewater valley areas.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A boundary continues to sag south and will linger just south of
the Ohio River overnight as low pressure tracks along it. This will
result in lingering showers and storms, with locally heavy rainfall
possible that could lead to flash flooding in the far southern and
southeast forecast area.
2) Becoming drier and warmer for much of the upcoming week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of MCV moving out of
Central Indiana along a slow moving front sagging slowly south.
A very moist environment exists with PWATs at or above 2 inches
ahead of the boundary. Moderate instability exists to fuel storms
with skinny CAPE soundings between 1000-1500 J/KG and warm cloud
depths 3.5-4.0 km. This environment will support very efficient
rainfall rates with any stronger convective elements. Radar shows
indications of training storms across portions of East Central
Indiana and Western Ohio. HREF LPMM suggests that these linear
features will likely dump 1 to 3 inches with the potential for
4 to 5 inches locally. Have expanded the flood watch farther north
to include all our ILN/s Indiana counties and portions of the Miami
Valley and Southwest Ohio thru 8 pm.
All of this activity will diminish and push off to the southeast late
this afternoon thru this evening as a short wave crosses the region.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
Large, anomalously strong mid level ridge centered over the northern
Plains during the early part of the week will elongate and extend
into the region. This will bring drier and warmer conditions with
Wednesday still looking to be the warmest day.
The short wave that is passing across the area late today into
tonight will cut off over the Tennessee Valley early next week. An
inverted surface trough extending northeast from the associated
surface low will extend across eastern Kentucky into the upper Ohio
Valley. So, isolated to scattered diurnal convection will still be
possible south and east of I-71 both Sunday and Monday. After that
point, the low will retrograde further away from the region as the
high builds over top of it.
Troughing over eastern Canada will develop into the northeastern US
late in the week, suppressing the ridge. As this occurs, the
potential for diurnal convection will return. Also, with lower
heights, temperatures will not be quite as high, although readings
will still be above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Primary boundary has settled along the Ohio River, which lingering
convection from the MCV now keeping most of the convection generally
south of the Ohio River. Have included a PROB30 of showers for
KLUK/KCVG for the first few hours of the TAF period, with the general
expectation that thunderstorms should remain further south.
Some IFR to MVFR stratus starting to emerge well north of the
boundary where breaks in the mid cloud deck is occurring. Have
included a mention of a brief MVFR/IFR deck to scattered IFR for
KILN/KDAY/KCMH/KLCK until mid clouds expected to fill in more by
about 03z. Confidence not very high with timing/location of the mid
deck breaks. Have also brought in MVFR visibility at KCVG/KILN/KLUK
as the mid deck diminishes after 06z.
Any fog that develops will improve quickly Sunday morning. While additional
showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon mainly south
and east of I-71, due to limited coverage have omitted any mention
in the TAFs at this time. Expecting wind gusts to near 20 MPH in the
18-23z timeframe.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ073-074-078>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Sunday for INZ075-080.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...JDR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 11, 7:52 PM EDT---------------
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