IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 1:51 PM EDT368
FXUS63 KIWX 101751
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
151 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through early
evening. Locally heavy rainfall possible.
- Less humid and mainly dry this weekend.
- Dry and trending warmer next week with highs into the low to
mid 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Widely scattered convection associated with a mid level shortwave
and corridor of higher theta-e will exit off to the east by daybreak
leaving primarily dry/humid conditions for the bulk of the morning
and early afternoon. Diurnally driven, isolated to scattered,
convection then once again redevelops this afternoon into early this
evening in the vicinity of a subtle low level boundary and/or
convective outflows drifting slowly south into a moderately unstable
air mass (~2000 j/kg of CAPE). The overall weak forcing/shear/flow
will not be conducive to storm organization, leaving localized
flooding and pulse-type wind gusts to 40 mph as the primary threats.
The southward sagging front will force the primary instability axis
south of the area later Friday night into Saturday with the bulk of
the area dry and less humid. There remains mixed signals in
available model guidance on if the northern fringes of a MCS
tracking east through the Mid MS/OH River Valleys clips our southern
zones during this time. Opted to retain a slight chance PoP south of
US 30 in IN and south of US 24 in OH.
An anomalously strong and expansive mid-upper level ridge remains on
track to build east over the North-Central US and Midwest Sunday
through the middle of next week. This will put a lid on any rain
chances with highs expected to reach the low-mid 90s by Tuesday-
Wednesday. Afternoon heat indices may make a run at 100 by this
time, though humidity levels look less impressive when compared to
our previous heat wave. Low chances (20-30%) for convection then by
the end of next week as ensembles tend to flatten the ridge
somewhat.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Predominantly VFR conditions at the terminals this period, with
brief MVFR ceilings/vis from heavier showers or thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. Best chances for showers and storms
will be at KFWA, where we have a tempo. Showers and storms are
popping up just west and north of the terminal already (near
North Manchester/Rochester/Albion, IN). Have a prob30 for KSBN
as most guidance develops convection further south and east near
a boundary moving through. We could see some development on a
lake breeze, but confidence wasn't high enough for a tempo.
Light and somewhat variable winds through the period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...MCD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 1:51 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
