JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 5, 7:37 PM EDT404
FXUS63 KJKL 052337
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
737 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few thunderstorms through early this evening could produce
locally heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts.
- Somewhat cooler and less humid weather arrives behind a cold
front on Saturday.
- Seasonably hot and rain-free weather follows for Sunday before a
humid and unsettled weather pattern develops for the new work
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024
Trimmed PoPs and Sky cover grids down given latest observed
trends. Radar does depict a few isolated showers, and SPC
Mesoanalysis does indicate some remaining instability to support a
few showers or storms. Dew points have trended lower from the mid
to upper 70s to the lower 70s late this afternoon behind today's
earlier convection, which supports the idea of lowering PoPs. All
other fields were initialized with the observations to ensure a
smooth blend into the forecast fields.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 440 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024
Late this afternoon, narrows ridging extended from portions of
the northern Gulf of Mexico and southeast across portions of the
southeastern Conus to southeast of the mid Atlantic coast with a
stronger ridge another near the west coast of the Conus and a
general area of broad troughing south from central Canada into the
western Great Lakes to south central Conus and MS Valley. A
shortwave trough ahead of the 500 mb trough axis was working
across portions of the OH Valley at this time with associated
convection that crossed the region from late in the morning into
the afternoon having largely departed to WV and VA. At the
surface, an area of low pressure was working across the Great
Lakes region with a trailing cold front working across western and
central KY to the Arklatex and further west toward the Southern
Plains. Behind this system a sfc high extended from the Plains
toward the mid MS Valley.
This evening and tonight, the shortwave trough working across the
region will depart to the east and northeast this evening. The 500
mb trough axis will remain across Central portions of the Conus
and west of the Commonwealth through Saturday night. Height rises
are expected to rise a bit on Saturday across the southeastern
Conus and into eastern KY, while little change in mid level
heights is expected late tonight as well as on Saturday night. At
the surface, the cold front will continue east this evening across
eastern KY and work into WV and VA overnight. Behind this system,
sfc high pressure will build east into the OH Valley and settle
over portions of the OH Valley and the Appalachians to end the
period.
Ahead of the front, isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will remain possible through this evening with
chances diminishing even near the WV and VA border not longer
after midnight. Fog should form at least in the valleys late
tonight and could become rather widespread areawide following
rainfall earlier today. A cooler and drier airmass will move into
the area behind the front as the high works east into the area for
Saturday and remain in place through Saturday night.
Less humid weather for Saturday and Saturday night will be most
notable with lows falling below 70 for most areas tonight and
areawide on Saturday night.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 610 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024
Weak surface high pressure will initially be found over the Mid-
Ohio Ohio Valley on Sunday morning while a frontal boundary will
be parked along the southeastern slopes of the Appalachians,
corralling the soupy humidity levels to our south and east. The
placid weather over the Ohio Valley won't persist though as the
combination of two weather makers, a upper level trough dipping
into the Central CONUS and and Hurricane Beryl approaching the
Lower Rio Grande Valley, likely set the stage for periods of wet
weather across the eastern Kentucky Coalfields.
High pressure will gradually depart to the northeast on Sunday,
allowing a southerly return flow to develop in advance of the
approaching upper level trough. This will pull the boundary to our
south back north and bring back sultry humidity levels on Monday.
Meanwhile, the advancing trough will push a cold front into the
Ohio Valley. This will lead to renewed diurnally modulated shower
and thunderstorm activity beginning Monday and lasting into Tuesday.
Thereafter, models are increasingly latching onto the idea of
Beryl's remnants riding northeastward along the boundary during
the middle and latter portions of the week, which would feed
tropical moisture into our region and keep the daily threat of
showers and thunderstorms over our area.
Temperature-wise, look for highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s on
Sunday, warming slightly into the upper 80s to lower 90s on
Monday. The most notable sensible change will be the rise in
humidity levels, which will boost Monday afternoon's heat indices
to near 100F at some locations. The threat for showers and
thunderstorms will also return on Monday. Greater cloud cover and
precipitation will keep temperatures more subdued from Tuesday
through at least Thursday, with highs primarily in the middle 80s.
Nighttime lows are forecast to range from the mid 60s to lower
70s through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024
Cold front crosses the region overnight tonight and ends chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Best chance for a remaining shower
or storm this evening is at KSJS, but TAF sites probably remain
dry from this point onward. Winds will average 10 KT or less
outside of any convection, from the southwest to west through 06Z
and then becoming west to northwest for the balance of the period
behind the cold front. Fog will also become a concern in the 06Z
to 13Z timeframe when at IFR and MVFR reductions will be possible
at all TAF sites. Given drier air advecting into the region
during the typical foggy period, was not especially confident in
putting FM groups, but did use some TEMPO groups for now. Residual
cloud cover may also inhibit fog formation somewhat during this
time frame as well.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 5, 7:37 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
