ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 3:03 AM EDT607
FXUS61 KILN 090703
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
303 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Timing of heavy rain potential is coming into somewhat better focus.
Also, added mention of drying out and warming up next week.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms early this morning and then again late
tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is possible south of I-70.
2) A low pressure system will track across the Ohio Valley Saturday
into Saturday night bringing more potential for heavy rainfall.
3) Drier and warmer conditions for next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Showers and thunderstorms have developed in the Tri-State with
additional showers further east-northeast along a zone of weak
convergence. This is also coincident with an axis of higher
precipitable water, ranging from 1.4 to 1.7 inches. There is a subtle
short wave moving into central Kentucky that will continue east
through the morning. This will cause the showers and storms to shift
east with some activity possibly lingering into this afternoon in
northeast Kentucky and south central Ohio. Beyond this departing
convection, it does not appear that there will be much if any showers
or storms through the day with a temporarily less moist air mass
moving in.
Attention then shifts westward. A convective system will come rolling
out of Illinois this evening and approach the region, most likely
after midnight, in a weakening state. There is a range of
possibilities on how this impacts the region. The HREF and REFS both
want to drive more robust convection southeast, thus missing the
forecast area to the south. This would mean that showers and perhaps
some embedded thunderstorms would be all that moves into the region
late tonight. Precipitable water will rebound, especially south of
I-70 where it may range from 1.8 to 2 inches. Thus if any stronger
echoes track into the region, there will be a continued concern for
locally heavy rainfall.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
Short wave over the mid Mississippi Valley early Saturday will slowly
push east southeast through the day and into Saturday night.
Associated surface low will track from western Illinois across
southern Indiana into central Kentucky. Showers and storms will occur
with and in advance of the low with a more focused axis in the
vicinity of a weak warm front/surface trough extending out ahead of
the low. Precipitable water will be decreasing from north to south
during this period. But heavy rainfall may still occur since more
concentrated/robust activity is possible, and that may still be
tapping into the northern gradient of the departing very moist air
mass. This threat will be limited to southeast Indiana, northern
Kentucky and Ohio counties near the Ohio River.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
Large mid level high pressure system that will be developing over the
northern/central Plains will eventually extend eastward into the
region. This will result in dry weather for early to mid week. In
addition, temperatures will trend upwards with readings eventually
getting into the upper 80s to lower 90s. At this point, the
probability of heat indices even approaching advisory levels is very
low, less than 20 percent.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers and storms in the Cincinnati area to start will move off
early in the period. In the wake of this, there could be some MVFR
visibility restrictions in fog at KLUK. Otherwise, VFR will prevail
with varying amounts of clouds in the 4-7kft range throughout. The
chance of any additional convection affecting any of the sites is
quite low until closer to 06Z Friday.
Outlook...Thunderstorms are possible late tonight through Saturday
night. MVFR ceilings are possible late tonight into Friday morning.
MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible late Friday night into
Saturday morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 3:03 AM EDT---------------
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