PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 5, 9:40 AM EDT568
FXUS61 KPBZ 051340
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
940 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance will set the stage for a round of scattered
thunderstorms today and tonight, offering low probabilities for
localized flash flooding and gusty wind. Dry weather with
seasonable temperature will return Saturday into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- More widespread coverage is expected today, with damaging
wind and flash flood threats remaining possible.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A few showers across the area will weaken through dawn. Expect
some minor issues along roadways from last nights heavy
rainfall. A few instances of fog is also possible where the
showers have exited. The morning is expected to be quiet through
16Z.
A more organized shortwave and surface low pressure crossing
the Great Lakes will lift a stationary boundary northward as a
warm front into the afternoon. A late-day cold front will move
through the region. Breaks in cloud coverage and weak cooling
aloft should help destabilize the otherwise unchanged
environment (modest CAPE, moderate shear, weak lapse rates, high
PWAT values). The expectation is for greater shower and
thunderstorm coverage during the afternoon and evening ahead of
the boundary, with damaging wind and localized flash flooding
threats possible. Improved forcing and instability should be
negated by stronger storm flow to leave the overall flash flood
threat similar to that seen today. The one limiting factor
through the coming day is the strength of the forcing after
yesterdays activity seemed to hit the northern portion of the
forecast area and this may mean that the I-70 corridor and south
will see the most impactful weather with the northern activity
being more isolated and the south seeing scattered strong to
severe storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and more seasonable weather returns on Saturday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Passage of the surface cold front and upper shortwave will
diminish storm chances by late tonight. A few showers will
likely continue through 06Z but the severe threat will likely
wane. Dry and seasonable weather returning on Saturday and into
Saturday night will allow for more seasonal-like temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- High probability for dry weather and slightly above average
temperature the rest of the weekend.
- Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through at least mid-week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Confidence remains high in dry weather continuing into the new
week as surface ridging remains over the Ohio Valley and upper
troughing persists over the Central Plains. Temperatures should
remain near-normal on Sunday, but increasing return flow and
warm advection on Monday ahead of the next low pressure system
will drive daily highs back above-normal. Ensembles indicate
more active weather Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure
crosses and upper troughing sets up across the East. High
pressure will return for Thursday with most activity being a
slight chance or less but most likely dry.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Line of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continues to
cross the area early this morning. Brief vsby restrictions have
generally dropped to 2SM as these roll over terminals.
IFR cigs across the region are expected to lift to VFR by late
morning / early afternoon based off latest forecast soundings.
An additional round of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible late afternoon / early evening with a shortwave and in
advance of a crossing cold front. Storms look to remain
scattered/isolated, with some uncertainty on exact timing at
specific locations. have used a PROB30 for KMGW, but removed
mention elsewhere with low confidence in convective initiation.
Cigs should lower into MVFR/IFR again overnight with lingering
moisture, eventually lifting Saturday morning as drier air moves
in behind the front.
.Outlook...
VFR conditions should persist through the weekend with high
pressure. The next chance for widespread restrictions will be
with our next system Tuesday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Frazier
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...88
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 5, 9:40 AM EDT---------------
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