Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #625 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY959
AWUS01 KWNH 061446
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-062044-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0625
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1045 AM EDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Areas affected...northern Ohio
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 061444Z - 062044Z
Summary...Local, but extreme, flash flood event continues near
Toledo. Additional flash flood potential could develop farther
east in northern Ohio (including Cleveland proper) through 20Z/4p
eastern.
Discussion...Band of focused convection over southwestern Lake
Erie appears to be enhanced by warm lake waters (26C+) while
benefiting from favorable east-northeasterly low-level
trajectories (i.e., long fetch) for robust convection. This band
was nearly stationary and extended from near/just east of Toledo
east-northeast to approximately 35 miles NNW of Cleveland. 1.8
inch PW values and 500 J/kg MLCAPE continues to support the
ongoing band, and with low-level trajectories expected to evolve
very slowly over the next 3-6 hours, it appears that heavy
rainfall and 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates will continue to focus along
lake shore areas near/just east of Toledo. Another 3-6 inches of
rainfall is possible in these areas.
Over time, surface heating across northern Ohio may support
additional convective development across the region in a similar
thermodynamic environment as the ongoing Lake Erie convective
band. Slow eastward movement of convection and abundant moisture
will promote local rain rates exceeding 1 inch/hr at times.
Recent rainfall has resulted in wet soils, and FFG thresholds are
generally at or below 1 inch/hr. Local flash flood potential is
expected as convection develops through the afternoon hours
(20Z/4p eastern).
Cook
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...ILN...IWX...PBZ...
ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 42128148 41788070 40888069 40388127 40128339
40898383 41588391 41918311
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #625 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY---------------
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