Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #559 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE017
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0559
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1148 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024
Areas affected...Eastern OH...Northern WV Panhandle...Western PA
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 050347Z - 050800Z
SUMMARY...Pockets of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms
overnight with heavy rainfall rates may result in a few instances
of flash flooding.
DISCUSSION...The late evening WPC surface analysis depicts a wave
of low pressure advancing gradually off to the east across central
OH with a quasi-stationary front extending east from here across
western and central PA. A trailing cold front extends southwest of
the low down along the OH River.
There is a corridor of moderate moisture flux convergence noted
across eastern OH out ahead of the surface wave in close proximity
to the front, and the latest RAP analysis does show a nose of
instability aiming up across this region with the aid of a 20 to
30 kt southwest low-level jet. MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg
are seen oriented from southern OH up into southwest PA, and this
has been helping to facilitate a few broken bands of heavy showers
and thunderstorms.
PWs across the region are anomalously high in vicinity of the
front, with values locally as high as 2.0 to 2.25 inches which is
a solid 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. This is helping
to drive locally very heavy rainfall rates with some of the
stronger storms given a rather efficiently deep layer of tropical
moisture.
Over the next few hours, this wave of low pressure should edge
gradually toward western PA and should allow for convection over
eastern OH to also move back into areas of western PA where there
has already been locally some heavy rainfall earlier in the
evening. The convection also is rather slow-moving and some of the
cells may tend to locally repeat over the same area. Portions of
the panhandle of northern WV may also possibly see some of this
activity.
The 00Z HREF guidance favors rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour
with the stronger cells, and suggests that at least locally an
additional 2 to 4 inches of rain may occur over the next few
hours. This may yield a few instances of flash flooding which will
include at least some urban flash flooding concerns locally.
Orrison
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...PBZ...
ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC...
LAT...LON 41528000 41497881 40847834 40227887 40028043
39978192 40078277 40468279 40898139
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #559 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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